A Disintegration That Threatens Stability : Yugoslavian strife might prove impossible to contain

Yugoslavia is drifting, seemingly inexorably, toward disintegration. Worse, it may be slipping closer to civil war.

This week the non-Communist governments of Slovenia, smallest and richest of Yugoslavia’s six republics, and of Croatia took the first steps toward secession. Slovenia’s Parliament laid the foundation for an independent police force, army and national bank. Croatia, second largest of the republics, acted to overrule all federal laws that jeopardize its sovereignty. Neither republic has set a date for leaving the 72-year-old state, but both say they intend to participate only in a looser confederal alliance rather than in the present system that is dominated by Serbia.

A GREATER SERBIA: Communist-ruled Serbia says it won’t accept changes in the current system. With its dominance of the military’s officer corps, Serbia has the means to try to enforce its anti-secessionist policy. Possibly it is prepared to let Slovenia, nearly all of whose 1.9 million people are Slovene, go its own way. Croatia would be another matter. About 600,000 of its 4.5 million people are Serbs. If a breakup takes place, Serbia warns that it might expand its borders to protect ethnic Serbs living elsewhere. That would make real the fear of a “Greater Serbia” that has long haunted several of the republics. Besides the Serbian minority in Croatia, Serbs account for nearly one-third of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 4.1 million people.

Slovenia proposes dividing Yugoslavia into two or more states. One could be a centrally ruled federation, much like the current system. The other, or others, would include republics that have opted either for independence or for association in a looser alliance. Leaders of the other republics now say they will examine this plan. Slovenia says it is ready to secede regardless of what others do. Slovenia, home to only 8.5% of Yugoslavs but accounting for about one-fifth of the country’s hard currency export earnings, is confident that it could make it as an independent state.

A LESSER YUGOSLAVIA: Growing economic problems are in part behind the moves toward independence. But it is old nationalistic and ethnic hostilities and unresolved questions over how power should be distributed that are most actively propelling Slovenia and Croatia toward separation. Divisive tendencies are inherent in Yugoslavia’s multi-ethnic origins. During the long post-World War II tenure of Josip Broz Tito, these were suppressed. The renewed prospect of similar efforts at suppression are setting off alarms in Europe, where worries grow that civil strife within Yugoslavia might prove impossible to contain.

Yugoslavia is eager to be accepted as a European country and to participate actively in the new Europe. But that can happen only when it has put its own house in order. It appears ready to try again, though past failures offer little hope for success. Is there scope now for friendly mediation by, say, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe? Outsiders may regard it as foolish even to try to mediate what looks to be an uncompromisable situation. But given the frightening potential alternative, at this stage anything is worth a try.