Singapore Feels Economic Squeeze : Pacific Rim: Slowdowns in Western nations and the Persian Gulf conflict are taming growth in one of Asia’s “tiger” countries.

The Persian Gulf crisis and downturns in major Western economies are taking a toll on Singapore, one of Asia’s economic “tigers.”

The nation--one of the world’s fastest-growing economies with near double-digit growth rates in recent years--on Tuesday forecast sharply lower growth in 1991 because of the Middle Eastern upheaval and economic slowdowns in the United States and other key trading partners.

A report prepared by the Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry predicted that the nation would achieve growth of between 3% and 6% in the year. That compares to growth rates of 8.3% in 1990 and 9.2% in 1989, the report said. Gross domestic product (GDP) in 1990 was put at $36.8 billion.

Analysts noted that the ministry estimates tend to be conservative, and many predicted that the final figure will be at the upper end of the estimate--around 6%.

“Our view is that Singapore will need a slowdown,” said Manu Bashakaran, an analyst with Crosby Securities PTE. “I don’t think Singapore can grow by faster than 6% for the next two or three years without contributing to overheating of the economy or increasing inflation.”

Virtually all of Asia’s economic “tigers”--Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore--are experiencing downturns in growth rates because of lower exports to the United States and Western Europe and higher fuel prices in the latter half of 1990.

The Singapore report said exports to the United States had actually declined in 1990, while continuing to expand to Western Europe, Malaysia and Japan. They are Singapore’s big four export markets.

Overall, however, exports increased in 1990 by 10%, compared to 8.5% a year earlier. The report said this was mainly attributable to increased exports of oil and computer peripherals, especially disk drives.

The financial and business sector was again the brightest star in Singapore’s economy, growing 15% in 1990 and accounting for 30% of GDP. The sector has achieved double-digit growth every year but three for the past two decades. However, analysts expect it to grow 8% or 9% in 1991.

Analysts said the electronics sector, which accounts for 11% of GDP, appeared buoyant, having bottomed out in 1989. But they cautioned that a severe downturn in the U.S. market could impact the electronics industry adversely.

Another factor benefiting Singapore is its relatively strong regional market, which includes Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. While they too are experiencing declines in growth, their economies are still expanding while the major Western economies undergo recession.

Weak spots were hotels, airlines and tourism. They suffered a slowdown because of higher fuel prices and a general decline in travelers because of terrorism scares and recessions overseas.

The signs of overheating were also apparent, according to the report. Unemployment declined to a record low of 1.7% in June, 1990, compared to 2.2% in 1989.

The downside of the high employment figure was pressure on wages, with monthly earnings growing by 9.4% in 1990, compared to 9.8% in 1989 and 8.2% in 1988.

SINGAPORE AT A GLANCE Gross domestic product (1990): $36.8 billion

Major industries: Petroleum refining, electronics, oil drilling equipment, rubber processing and rubber products, processed food and beverages, ship repair, entrepot trade, financial services, biotechnology.

Chief exports (including transshipments to Malaysia): Petroleum products, rubber, electronics, manufactured goods.

Chief export partners: United States, Malaysia, Japan, Thailand, Hong Kong, Australia, Germany.