For Soldiers Just Following Orders, Hussein’s Best Order Is ‘Go Home’ : Iraq: The leader’s speech betrays concern that he had to act fast to control an army no longer certain which way to move.

Just hours before Iraqi President Saddam Hussein spoke the words that triggered an explosion of celebration throughout his besieged nation, Hadi Mohammed, an Iraqi foot soldier at a desert outpost here, symbolized what forced Hussein to do what he vowed he would never do: surrender Kuwait.

At another time, another place, Mohammed would have gushed praise for his commander and vowed to martyr himself in his leader’s holy war. But as he stood at the Jordanian border waiting to escort a convoy of bread back to his nation, Mohammed mentioned that he has three brothers in Kuwait, infantrymen in the front lines. Asked about the ground battle now battering his fellow soldiers, he hinted at the state of morale in Iraq’s beleaguered armed forces.

“Sorry,” he replied with glum resignation. “Forgive me. But we are people who just carry out their duty.”

Although masked by more than a decade of fear and dictatorship, behind Mohammed’s answer was an explanation for Hussein’s increasing desperation to disengage from Kuwait, said analysts here.

“It’s now obvious to Saddam and the world,” said one Western military analyst, “that the heart of the Iraqi army just isn’t in this fight. Tens of thousands already have surrendered. Tens of thousands more have shown quite clearly they just won’t fight.

“So, to an army that has painfully learned the lesson, ‘Just follow orders,’ the sweetest sound Saddam could give was today’s order to go home.”

Analysts had been saying that Iraq’s sagging military morale would be crucial in determining the length and outcome of the allied ground battle. But Hussein’s extraordinary, though veiled, statement of capitulation Tuesday revealed even more of the realities that lay just below the surface of Iraq’s wartime propaganda campaign.

Hussein’s speech, although delivered in calm and soothing tones, betrayed an increasing concern on his part that he had to act swiftly to maintain control of an army that no longer is certain which way it should move.

“By most accounts, the Iraqi army in Kuwait was already surrounded by the time Saddam got around to ordering their retreat,” said the military analyst, an expert on the Iraqi armed forces based in the Persian Gulf. “He’s going to lose some top battlefield commanders down there, and a lot more of them are going to think he waited too long. Morale was bad before the speech. Now, he’ll be lucky to avoid an outright rebellion in the ranks.”

Hussein devoted most of his speech to justifying his moves, casting it as a military capitulation with honor, a retreat without surrender and a victory of sheer endurance against a larger and better armed superpower that will yield a larger victory well into the future.

“We shall not forget that great spirit of holy war with which men of great faith challenged the citadels of treason and betrayal,” he declared to his soldiers.

He described the battles already fought at the front as “successful seeds planted in the ‘mother of battles,’ ” adding that “a harvest within the coming period of time is much more than it is in the present time, because it is based on dignified victory.”

He assured the troops that, despite their unconditional withdrawal, “Kuwait will be one of the main gates to deter aggression and conspiracy against all of Iraq.” It was only the “special circumstances” of the massive force opposing them that forced him to give the order to retreat, he said.

“The confidence of the fighters and the Muslims has grown bigger than before and hope has increased more and more. This is why the victory is a big victory, now and in the future. . . .”

Even as Hussein was attempting to justify himself and raise the morale of his armed forces under attack while in retreat, he was dropping broad hints at his longer-term game plan that analysts believe may well succeed, regardless of whether the allies had permitted his withdrawal.

“Even if the allies destroy all the forces Saddam has committed in and around Kuwait, he’s still got enough to build on,” said a European military strategist in the Middle East. “He’s got some of his best divisions safely tucked away on the Turkish and Iranian fronts and in and around Baghdad. And his best aircraft--at least 150 of them--are sitting out the war in Iran.

“So, what he’s really telling his army in this speech is, ‘Let’s cut our losses now, rebuild and return to fight another day,’ ” the analyst explained. “And he just might pull it off--if Iran gives him back the planes and, of course, if he survives.”

It is the second “if” that motivated the allies to reject Hussein’s unconditional order to relinquish Kuwait, according to these strategists.

“The allies are saying it’s no longer enough just to give up Kuwait,” the European analyst said. “They’re now saying, in effect, that Saddam has gone too far to get out now and that both he and his military must not simply be destroyed, but humiliated as well.”

By including in his address a thinly veiled nationalist appeal for the continued support of his people, Hussein indicated in his speech that he is aware of the allied effort to unseat and humiliate him.

He spoke of “the indirect goals which have exposed the opponents,” and stressed that this was a strategy that should bring “more faith to the faithful and cause a return to the norms . . . of the Iraqi personality.” He made a direct pitch for the Iraqi people to consider “by their own norms . . . the relationship between the president and the people, and the relationship between the leader and those led by him.”

But it remained unclear Tuesday whether the senior command of the Iraqi military would buy his claim to a victory of endurance. The senior commanders are known to have endorsed Hussein’s military strategy to hold out just long enough to inflict major casualties on the allied forces, particularly the Americans.

Within the Arab context, analysts in the region said, Hussein could legitimately claim victory in the eyes of his supporters if he drew significant American blood before a tactical withdrawal. Several analysts said that Monday night’s Scud missile attack on U.S. servicemen in Dhahran may have given Hussein enough ammunition to confront his skeptics at home.

“Really, the Iraqi military is the most secretive organization on earth,” the European analyst said. “Every once in a while, we get a peek inside. In the past few days, for example, we have seen very clearly that the mood in there is quite bleak. But, in the final analysis, no one knows whether that will translate into the end of Saddam.”