Yeltsin vs. Gorbachev: The Stakes Go Higher : No-confidence vote could define Soviet future

Opinion polls leave no doubt that Boris N. Yeltsin is the Soviet Union’s most popular politician. But the esteem of his countrymen may not be enough to assure that the blunt-spoken leader of the giant Russian Federation will hold on to his job and the high-visibility pulpit that goes with it.

In fact, the very magnitude of Yeltsin’s popularity, which increases each time he fires a new blast at Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev, could help bring him down when the Russian Congress convenes in a special session starting Thursday. High on its agenda will be a move by Yeltsin’s right-wing enemies to push through a motion of no confidence in him.

Yeltsin in now regarded by Gorbachev and the Communist Party hierarchy as a threat to their political survival. Almost daily, Yeltsin leaps atop his war horse and charges off to do battle against Gorbachev, repeating his accusations that the president has abandoned his commitment to reform, betrayed the democratic aspirations of the people and sold out to the reactionary Establishment. Russians seem to love it, turning out in the hundreds of thousands at pro-Yeltsin rallies.

This week, to show their support in the face of the proposed no-confidence vote, Yeltsin’s backers were again preparing to rally in Moscow. They had a permit to do so from the city government--itself highly critical of Gorbachev--and expectations of drawing as many as 500,000 people. The rally, however, has now been ordered canceled. Clearly concerned about having yet another embarrassingly huge show of support for his archrival, Gorbachev has imposed a three-week ban on all public demonstrations and additionally moved to put Moscow’s police under Interior Ministry control. The three-week period aims not just at trying to keep the streets quiet while the Russian Federation Congress is in session, but also at trying to keep popular anger under control when steep new price hikes are announced soon.

Democratic Russia, a coalition of liberal and radical parties, declared Tuesday--with the backing of the Moscow City Council--that despite the Gorbachev ban, it would proceed with a protest rally just outside the Kremlin.

A few weeks ago in Russia, the Gorbachev referendum on preserving the Soviet Union as a “renewed federation” included a second question, put on the ballot at Yeltsin’s behest: Should the federation’s president be popularly elected? The answer was overwhelmingly yes, not least on the assumption that Yeltsin would hold that office. Such success at the polls would give him a unique political legitimacy, one that Gorbachev--who chose not to chance a popular vote--can’t claim. But if Yeltsin loses his federation post now, he would no doubt also lose what’s left of his diminished access to the media, particularly television, which is again under tight official controls. While he couldn’t be completely silenced, his voice would be muted, his ability to influence events restrained.

And if Yeltsin defeats the no-confidence motion? Then almost certainly he will act to redouble his challenge to Gorbachev, moving ahead with his own program of reforms and contrasting his own decisiveness with Gorbachev’s increasingly laggard approach. Whatever its outcome, then, this week’s planned no-confidence vote could prove crucial in defining the Soviet Union’s political course--and stability--in the months ahead. The popular aspirations that have been invested in Yeltsin may be exaggerated; his commitment to democratic reforms, beyond the stage of winning election for himself as federation president, has yet to be demonstrated. What can’t be denied is that he is now seen as embodying the deepest hopes for change. Yeltsin’s enemies may regard him with fear and contempt, but they ignore those hopes only at their own peril.