L.A. Deficit Could Grow, Analysts Say : City finances: It could rise $21 million over the current $177 million under the governor’s budget plan, they say, causing layoffs or higher taxes.

Los Angeles’s projected $177-million budget deficit could grow by an additional $21 million--forcing layoffs or higher taxes--as a result of Gov. Pete Wilson’s proposals for closing the state’s budget gap, city analysts said late Thursday.

An obscure element of Wilson’s sweeping budget proposal would reduce the amount of motor vehicle license fees that the state would share with cities. That would cost Los Angeles $21 million in the upcoming fiscal year, analysts said.

“It will force layoffs, additional taxes or some combination of the two,” said Keith Comrie, city administrative officer.

Already Mayor Tom Bradley was proposing $100 million in spending cuts and $77 million in new taxes to cure the projected deficit in the city’s proposed $3.9-billion budget for the 1991-1992 fiscal year.

“The mayor went as far as he could without closing facilities or laying off employees,” said Comrie. “Like the Library Department,” said Comrie. “The library is $1 away from closing facilities or laying off workers.”

“It’s shortsighted to pass the state’s budget problems off on localities,” said Deputy Mayor Mark Fabiani. “The mayor opposes any move by the state to balance its budget on the backs of the cities.”

City Councilman Zev Yaroslavsky, chairman of the Finance and Revenue Committee that is now holding hearings on the proposed city budget, said it may be possible to absorb the revenue cut and still avoid layoffs. But, he said, it would make it unlikely that the council would be able to restore any of the 415 police officer positions that the mayor has proposed eliminating.

Still, Yaroslavsky added, “This is not the end. This is only April. Wait until June when (the state Legislature) has to find $100 million more” to balance its budget.”

Los Angeles County administrators were particularly concerned that the additional sales tax revenue would not offset the additional costs of shifting programs to local control. About a third of the $800 million in program shifts would involve Los Angeles County, said Gerald Roos, the senior assistant administrative officer.

The governor’s proposed 50% cut in trial court funding was also a concern. Last year the county received about $130 million of its $441 million courts budget from the state. Meanwhile, key City Council members said Thursday they were unwilling to go along with Bradley’s proposal to cut 415 officers from the Los Angeles Police Department, even though police officials told the council they would be able to absorb such a loss.

Assistant Chief David Dotson, in City Council hearings Thursday before the council’s Finance and Revenue Committee, vowed to keep as many officers as possible on the street. But he said the department would scale back support staff and specialized units, as well as close the Elysian Park academy, if the department had to absorb Bradley’s proposal to whack 415 sworn officers from the force.

Dotson said that in a “worst-case” scenario, the department’s force in the field could be reduced by as many as 200 officers. But even that, he said, would not significantly reduce response time to emergency calls beyond the current seven-minute average.

Dotson and others warned, however, that fallout from the Rodney G. King beating incident could require higher training, staffing and legal costs soon.

Committee members said they would fight to restore at least 200 positions, and possibly the entire number of officers that Bradley has proposed cutting. The committee will send its budget recommendations to the whole council within the next several weeks.

“The proposed budget is unrealistic and, to me, unacceptable,” said Councilwoman Joy Picus. “I will not vote for a budget that cuts cops.” Yaroslavsky suggested restoring 200 of the officers and Councilman Richard Alatorre recommended restoring 250.

The council members, however were less generous with other law enforcement agencies, as they threatened to impose layoffs on the city’s parking ticket writers, who they said were unproductive.

Restoring the Police Department to its full 8,417-person force would cost an additional $13.6 million, according to Police Department figures. To restore all police programs to their full funding level would cost a total of $23 million, according to the department’s analysis.

And expenses could climb higher as the full effect of the King beating is felt, police and city attorney officials testified.

Dotson told committee members that if they want better “vertical” communication at the department, so that the administration has better control of officers’ conduct in the field, it will mean adding more inspectors and that will cost still more. “The lack of a top-level command staff . . . is a weakness in the department,” Dotson said.

Earlier, City Atty. James K. Hahn testified that as a result of the King incident there will be more lawsuits filed against the city and the Police Department. More cases will go to trial, requiring more preparation by a limited staff of city attorneys, and jury payouts will likely increase, he warned lawmakers in seeking increased funding for his own department.

Though Hahn’s requests received a cool reception on Wednesday, a similar Police Department recommendation made Thursday was greeted more warmly.

Dotson suggested that the council fund a special unit in the city attorney’s office that would only handle police litigation. Yaroslavsky ordered the city administrative officer to prepare a study on the proposal.