NEWS ANALYSIS : In Yugoslavia, West Backs a Man With No Following : Diplomacy: Markovic’s struggle for unity appears hopeless. Nation’s disintegration seems all but inevitable.

An 11th-hour barrage of diplomacy to stave off the breakup of Yugoslavia appears to have failed because Western officials were counting on a political comeback by Prime Minister Ante Markovic.

While Markovic is seen in the West as an advocate of reform and a tireless champion of unity, he is viewed by many of his own countrymen as an unelected holdover from the discredited Communist era.

Each republic has adhered to the prime minister’s policies only so far as it has suited nationalist interests, casting aside any points of conflict as irrational demands by an illegitimate authority.

The West’s attempt to influence Yugoslav politics--most recently during the visit of Secretary of State James A. Baker III--stumbled for its failure to recognize early enough that Markovic and his embattled government exercise little real power.

All six Yugoslav republics held multiparty elections last year, but the first free vote for a federal leadership has been held hostage to the debate over Yugoslavia’s future. Markovic and his Cabinet have shaken off the Communist Party that originally brought them to power, but they have never stood in contested elections and lack the legitimacy of the republic leaders.

Rather than plotting strategy for dealing with the undesirable but likely prospect of Yugoslavia’s division, Baker and other foreign envoys pressed for preservation of the federation--something none of the key players in the political standoff really want.

Stymied over how to budge nationalist leaders from inflexible positions, the envoys appear to have clung to a policy of wishful thinking.

Baker left Yugoslavia on Saturday, reportedly deflated by his inability to make any headway in the tense and potentially explosive political crisis.

On Friday, while Baker caucused with all six republic presidents, the head of the new European Bank for Reconstruction and Development made a separate pitch to Markovic to keep together the federation formed from rival states in 1918.

Bank chief Jacques Attali promised aid and support for a united Yugoslavia, while warning that rebellious republics would face a cold shoulder from international financiers.

Three weeks earlier, the presidents of the European Community and the European Council promised $1 billion in aid to Yugoslavia if it could resolve its divisive crises, and leaders from France, Germany and the Soviet Union pressed for a peaceful solution to the political conflict.

Markovic has often sought to understate the crisis and its international consequences, likely fearing that presenting a breakup as inevitable would scare away the last remnants of hope for effective foreign intervention.

His pragmatic optimism has often been what the West has wanted to hear.

But the 66-year-old prime minister has lately switched from predicting imminent resolution to demanding it and threatening harsh measures against any republic that attempts to secede.

While he has repeatedly insisted that republics pay their shares of federal expenses and appealed for the disarming of illegal republic militias, neither effort has met with success.

Baker and the European envoys have rallied around Markovic in the hopes that by propping up the prime minister with promises of loans and international support, Yugoslavs, too, would come around to respect him.

Moreover, in the absence of a federal president or even a political party leader with multinational appeal, there were no other candidates for the West’s confidence or channels through which to push for an end to the highly charged political standoff that threatens to break into civil war.

Now, only three days before Slovenia and Croatia plan to declare their independence, opportunities for productive foreign intercession appear to be exhausted and a breakup of the federation unavoidable.

The failure of diplomacy stems in part from the Western leaders’ earlier assumption that because Markovic was the only Yugoslav politician talking sensibly, that sensible people would listen.

But as the crisis has escalated from political stalemate to ethnic bloodletting, many of those once considered sensible have been driven to extremes. The concept of compromise has taken on the indignity of defeat, and rival ethnic groups have placed settling old scores as a much higher priority than the alliance’s survival or even peace.

The message of unity that Markovic has been preaching has fallen on deaf ears among the chief protagonists, the leaders of Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia, who have used his federal recovery program as a weapon against opponents.

Serbia, largest of the six republics, has been cheering the Markovic reform plan for its support of a strongly united federation because the current borders of Yugoslavia allow all 9 million Serbs to live in one country. As the largest ethnic group, with nearly 40% of Yugoslavia’s 24 million citizens, Serbs also dominate the military and other key federal institutions, giving them disproportionate power over the other republics.

While Serbia strives to retain those advantages, it disregards other principles of the federal government. The Communist leadership has ignored the Markovic economic recovery program, systematically violated the rights of ethnic Albanians and manipulated the state-run media and Central Bank to ensure its continued political power.

Serbia has also revealed the limits of its support for the federation with its dismissive attitude toward secession by Slovenia.

“We have nothing against their leaving,” says Serbia’s deputy prime minister, Slobodan Prohaska. “Slovenia is the only republic (where secession) is non-problematic on ethnic grounds, because they are virtually all Slovenes. We don’t understand why they want to leave, but they have the right to decide this for themselves.”

On the other hand, Serbia has vowed to use any force necessary to prevent independence for Croatia, where ethnic Serbs account for about 12% of the republic’s 5 million people.

Croatia, which is Markovic’s native republic, supported the prime minister’s economic recovery program only to the degree that it provided evidence that rival Serbia was violating federal law.

Croatian President Franjo Tudjman has demanded autonomy for his republic, and the nationalist Croatian Democratic Union has imposed discriminatory taxes on Serbian homeowners.

Slovenia, angered by Markovic’s reluctance to step in and halt a Serbian boycott of Slovenian products last year, began withholding federal taxes and customs duties intended to benefit Serbian projects.