Pace of Soviet Reform Tied to Aid, Gorbachev Adviser Says

Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev will try to persuade the seven major industrial nations at the economic summit in London this week that Moscow intends to “radicalize” its movement toward democracy and a free-market economy, but the speed and depth of its efforts will depend on Western aid, a key Gorbachev adviser said Sunday.

Appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press” from London, Yevgeny M. Primakov also said that Moscow is preparing for a visit by President Bush in late July or early August, and he predicted that the two leaders will sign a new strategic arms treaty. “I expect it,” he said of a Bush-Gorbachev summit at that time.

Primakov, a bit pugnaciously, insisted that Gorbachev will “not beg” for Western money. “We don’t need any approval” for an economic package, he said. “You see, we are a great power.”

But since stability, democracy and a free economy in the Soviet Union are in the “mutual interest” of Moscow and the West, he said, “we expect to be supported in many ways, in many ways, including financial support.”

Primakov declined to give any details of the message Gorbachev will bring, so it was unclear whether his assurances of a faster pace and deeper changes in Soviet economic reform will be sufficient for skeptical Western leaders at the economic summit, including President Bush.

Senior Administration officials have predicted, based in part on a long letter from Gorbachev to Bush, that the latest Soviet plan “will be more radical than we’ve seen so far, but not as radical as we’d like.”

The Administration wants to see changes in the broader political climate--including deep cuts in Soviet defense spending, reduced aid to Cuba and resolution of the impasse on Baltic independence demands--before agreeing to any significant U.S. economic assistance, one official said.

Primakov said the main objective now is to stabilize the Soviet economy, whose output is falling about 10% annually. But he said that harsh measures in moving toward a free market, such as converting state enterprises to private ownership and freeing prices, could worsen conditions in the short term.

The new economic plan calls for selling off 80% of Soviet industry, including small shops and service firms, within “one or two” years, Primakov said. But he noted that Britain, under the Thatcher government, took 12 years to privatize 17% of its economy. “We could do it in a shorter time,” he said, “but that depends on help from the West.”

He cautioned that taking off price controls while there is insufficient stock on the shelves creates “the possibility of social uprising.”