Floods Dampen Hopes for China's Economy : Disaster: The government has appealed for outside humanitarian aid. The nation's grain losses are heavy.

By KATHY WILHELM

July 26, 1991 12 AM PT

ASSOCIATED PRESS

BEIJING —

Before the rains began, 1991 was projected as a year of recovery for China’s sluggish economy, and local officials had hopes of matching last year’s record harvest.

But all that is in doubt now, after two months of punishing downpours caused the worst floods in a century in the Yangtze River Valley and serious floods in other parts of the country.

“It is necessary to mobilize the whole nation to help the flood-stricken areas,” Premier Li Peng ordered this week.

The floods have killed at least 1,781 people and left more than 4 million homeless, according to official estimates. Thousands of factories in one of China’s key export-producing regions have been shut for weeks, and some may need to replace damaged equipment.

Both in terms of rainfall and direct economic losses, officials say the flooding is the worst in a century.

In terms of sheer human misery, however, it pales compared to floods in 1931 and in 1954 in the same region, where millions died, according to history books.

In mid-July, China appealed to the United Nations and world governments for humanitarian relief. Aid pledges totaling $81 million have come from abroad, mostly from Hong Kong. China itself has responded with an outpouring of donations that totaled $48 million by midweek. China estimates that its economic losses from the floods are $4.9 billion.

The ruling Communist Party, seeking to turn the floods to its advantage, has praised the donors for showing socialist spirit and given more media attention to relief efforts than to the victims.

The party and army are hoping to narrow the breach between themselves and the public created by the 1989 crackdown on a nationwide democracy movement, but it is too early to gauge their success.

The grain crop has been reduced, although officials are not sure precisely how much. Provincial officials report more than 13 million tons of grain lost, but the State Statistical Bureau said this week that the summer grain harvest totaled 98 million tons, down 2 million tons from last year’s record.

Meanwhile, the Agriculture Ministry warns that the rainy season still has a month to go in most of China, and the typhoon season along the southeastern coast, China’s most prosperous area, has just started.

In the ministry’s worst nightmare, planting for the major autumn harvest could be delayed, undermining the nation’s annual struggle for grain self-sufficiency.

Heavy rains are causing new floods in scattered places, especially lush, mountainous Sichuan province in the southwest and Jilin in the northeast.

But the authorities’ greatest attention is focused on recovery work along the lower reaches of the Yangtze, where the worst disaster unfolded in early July.

The region, one of China’s most densely inhabited, is both a breadbasket and an industrial center.

The rains began in Jiangsu and neighboring Anhui on May 15 and continued with short breaks until July 13. By then, 22 out of China’s 31 provinces were affected, and some places had received 68 inches of rain, more than usually falls in an entire year.

The primitive earthen dikes that hold back the Huai, Chu, Qinhuai, Lixia and other Yangtze tributaries broke in places, inundating entire villages.

The government mobilized 360,000 soldiers, possibly a peacetime record, to rescue flood victims, reinforce dikes, distribute relief and replant fields.

For the army, tarnished by its attack on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing in 1989, it was an opportunity to re-establish the brotherly image fostered during civil war in the 1940s, when Communist fighters depended heavily on peasants.

The Communist Party also has found a positive note in the flood response.

“Large numbers of party members withstood severe tests by taking the lead and rushing to provide help,” said Jiang Zemin, party general secretary.

No public criticism has been raised of the government’s preparedness or the inadequacy of dikes and drainage channels--not surprising in the current atmosphere of tight political control.

The clearest acknowledgment of shortcoming came early in the week from Premier Li, who was quoted by the official media as saying that “existing water conservancy projects are not capable enough of resisting heavy floods.”

At least one high-level official, Water Resources Minister Yang Zhenhuai, used the floods to push for a controversial dam project proposed for the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, at a spot called the Three Gorges.

If the rains had occurred in that area, the losses would have been tremendous, Yang said, adding that a dam could prevent such losses.

Environmentalists and engineers have lobbied against the dam, contending that it could worsen flooding while endangering the rare Yangtze River dolphin.

The plan is on hold, but Li is believed to support it, and officials have predicted that it will be approved later this year.

How to Help Flood Victims

Organizations accepting flood relief donations for China . List provided by the Chinese Consulate in Los Angeles:

China International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

9 Xi Huangchenggen Nanjie

Beijing, China 100032

Telephone 011 861 601-2839

China Red Cross Society

53 Ganmian Hutong

Beijing, China 100010

Telephone 011 861 512-4447

L.A. Consulate General