Help the Republics Reach Independence Peacefully : Secession: Steps by the West can help quell nuclear fears.

Boris Yeltsin won. Democracy overcame. The Russian republic is saved. What will happen now?

There is a good chance that Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia will also be looking for a secure future, with a renewed eagerness for independence.

What will happen to Moldova, Georgia and Armenia, the other republics that refused to sign the Union Treaty? Will they, as well as autonomous regions like Nagorno-Karabakh, receive more generous attention from the West in their fight for independence if the old Soviet government is restored? I doubt it. Here’s why:

There is a certain paranoia in the world that if the secessionist movement in the Soviet Union becomes more real, the possibility of nuclear war will grow, parallel to the appearance of new countries in the ex-Soviet territory. Nobody wants the Soviet nuclear threat to be divided into smaller and maybe more aggressive shares.

But isn’t it much wiser to look in the face of reality now, before it is too late, and avoid that sort of outcome by helping those regions to fulfill their inevitable desire for independence in a civilized way, under control of the civilized world, according to international laws and treaties? I am confident that the independent-minded republics would gladly destroy their nuclear might under proper control if they were given international guarantees of sovereignty and maybe even some military-related assistance from the United Nations, at least for the beginning.

If, however, they are once more half-forsaken by the West, the central Soviet government may not be able to resist the temptation of keeping those countries under its control by force. In that case, we may witness violence and bloodshed on a vast scale. The regions tending toward independence will finally win, of course, but they will be less willing to share their military power, including nuclear, which they will logically consider their only reliable guarantee of independence.

The tragic events in Moscow this week prove that people’s will is very hard to break. It will be harder in secessionist regions where people have long nurtured a strong opposition to Moscow.

I am convinced that this chance must not be missed. Yeltsin and his courageous men overcame the dark forces in Russia. The West now has an excellent and exclusive chance to improve the world order dramatically.