Philippine-U.S. Subic Bay Pact in Peril : Asia: The Aquino government appears unable to muster the votes to get the treaty ratified.

The Philippines and the United States face an uphill fight to win approval of a military bases agreement that would allow continued American use of Subic Bay Naval Base for another decade.

President Corazon Aquino’s government appears unable to muster the required 16 votes in the 23-member Philippine Senate to get the bases treaty--signed Tuesday by Philippine Foreign Secretary Raul Manglapus and U.S. Ambassador Frank Wisner at Malacanang Palace--ratified by Sept. 16, when the old agreement expires.

Aquino has appealed directly to Filipinos to help her push the treaty in the Senate. “I need your support in this,” she said during the treaty-signing ceremony, broadcast live on television.

Replying to critics who contend that the presence of the foreign bases diminishes Philippine sovereignty, Aquino pointed out that foreign troops in Japan and Europe do not seem to have such an effect.

“My countrymen, we have agreed to this treaty because we believe that it is in the best interest of the country,” she said. “This treaty is not about military bases. It deals with our total relationship with another country, one that has been a longtime friend of the Philippines, an ally in the truest sense of the word.”

Under the agreement, the Philippines this year would get $323 million from the United States. The Philippine armed forces would then get half of the $203 million annually that the United States would pay in compensation over the remaining nine years of the pact. The United States would give up volcano-ravaged Clark Air Base by September, 1992.

The agreement was reached after 11 months of tortuous talks. The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in June cut short the U.S. intention to keep the two bases.

As part of Tuesday’s treaty package, President Bush wrote to Aquino, reaffirming the U.S. commitment to offer the Philippines development assistance, trade access and contributions to the foreign-funded Multilateral Aid Initiative.

Wisner emphasized that the allies need each other in uncertain times, saying: “The invasion of Kuwait and the coup attempt in the Soviet Union remind us how fragile is the peace.”

Manglapus said the region needs the security provided by the American bases and that the treaty buys time for governments in the area to take over their own military needs and duties.

U.S. officials and the Aquino government conceded that they are uncertain about the treaty winning approval. American officials privately said they see only 10 certain votes for the treaty in the Philippine Senate, well short of the requirement.

But Franklin Drilon, Aquino’s key adviser and executive secretary, said: “We are working very hard talking to the senators.” He said some of them sought conditions to change their votes, but he declined to specify the demands. Aquino also announced the creation of a group to review U.S.-Philippine relations starting in December. Observers said this is designed to further pacify senators critical of the treaty.

John Osmena, a Philippine senator who favors the treaty, said he counts nine sure votes for ratification. While five more could switch to supporting the agreement, he is pessimistic that any more votes could be won over.

U.S. officials have said that American forces will begin pulling out of the Philippines Sept. 16 if the treaty fails to win ratification. But Osmena said that a U.S. withdrawal would take from one to three years. “If this be so, then the pullout will be overtaken by the 1992 elections, and a new Senate may be elected (and may) vote favorably on the treaty,” he said.