52,900 Cancer Deaths in California Predicted for 1992

About 52,900 Californians will die of cancer in 1992 and another 120,760 new cases will be diagnosed, according to an American Cancer Society report released Friday.

Those figures average out to 145 deaths a day. Cancer deaths will account for one-fifth of all the deaths in the state in 1992, according to the first advance estimates of the state’s cancer toll.

And if present trends continue, one of every three people now alive will get cancer during their lives, the society warned.

Health officials say the statewide rates are slightly lower than national averages. Officials theorize that California has fewer cancer cases because of a younger populace and large populations of Hispanics and Asians, who tend to have less cancer.

The projections are based on data from 1988, the first year the state collected cancer rates by county. The report, released at the society’s California Division 45th annual meeting in San Diego, contains the first advance estimate of county-by-county cancer tolls.

The report projects 14,535 cancer deaths in Los Angeles County in 1992 and 33,175 projected new cases.

The statistics will help the fund-raising Cancer Society gauge its effectiveness and decide how best to spend its money, said Dr. Paul Goldfarb, a San Diego oncologist and president-elect of the society’s California Division.

The report will be repeated every year and will become more accurate as actual cancer rates from 1989 and beyond are charted and trends appear, said Dr. John Young, chief of cancer surveillance for the state health department.

The report also includes 1988 statistics showing that blacks in California had higher incidence and death rate than other races for most of the common types of cancer. Both blacks and Hispanics were more likely than whites to be diagnosed at later stages of the disease.

The delayed diagnoses for racial minorities reflect a lower quality and availability of health care for lower-income residents, the report concludes.

Breast and lung cancer are the most common, each accounting for about 16% of the state cancer total.