MANILA WATCH : Base Line

The Philippine Senate has spoken, but is it speaking for the people?

In the aftermath of its predictable rejection of the proposed new base treaty with the United States, President Corazon Aquino is calling on Filipinos to reverse the decision in a referendum.

Will “people power” endorse severing the 93-year U.S. military presence in the Philippines--or will it show the Senate position to be contrary to the national will? Opinion surveys show that most Filipinos favor the American presence, largely because of its benefits to the economy.

The treaty rejected Monday would have allowed the United States to stay at Subic Bay Naval Base for 10 years at an annual rent of $203 million.

That sounds good enough to Aquino. Striking the “people power” note that helped catapult her to power in 1986, she plans to invoke a complex and untried law that allows a popular referendum on any matter, providing that 10% of the nation’s voters sign an initiating petition.

The U.S. State Department supports her efforts, which in effect puts the Senate action on hold. Under the Philippine constitution, the lease on Subic, the largest U.S. military base in Southeast Asia, expired Monday, but Aquino has assured American authorities that U.S. forces may remain at least one more year.

With national elections coming up next May, a referendum fight is likely to be messy. The U.S. military presence has long been an affront to national sovereignty for many Filipinos. But to most? That’s the $203-million-a-year question.