Navy Can Stay at Subic for a Year, Aquino Says : Philippines: She gives the U.S. that assurance. A joint group will begin planning the American pullout.

By JIM MANN and CHARLES WALLACE

Sept. 17, 1991 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITERS

WASHINGTON —

Philippine President Corazon Aquino has assured the United States that U.S. forces will be permitted to remain at the Subic Bay Naval Base for at least another year, senior Bush Administration officials said Monday.

Because of the vote by the Philippines Senate to reject a new military base treaty with the United States, however, a joint committee of U.S. and Philippine officials will begin meeting soon to discuss how to return control of Subic Bay facilities to Manila, Administration sources said.

“We’re going to plan to withdraw,” said a senior U.S. official closely involved in the negotiations. “We can’t get out in a day, so it’s important for us to have time. . . . If the government of the Philippines changes its mind and decides they want us to stay, that will be a different matter.”

Richard L. Armitage, the senior U.S. negotiator for the base negotiations, cautioned against any move by Philippine military officials--many of whom want the American military to stay--to mount a coup, dissolve the Philippine legislature or intervene in democratic processes.

“Such . . . activities will not be tolerated by the U.S. government, as a matter of policy or law, and will result in a complete termination of all U.S. assistance (to the Philippines),” Armitage said in a telephone interview. He was repeating past U.S. statements about the consequences of any attempted coup d’etat against the Philippines’ democratic government.

The Philippines Senate voted 12-11 Monday to reject the new bases accord, which would have allowed the U.S. Navy to continue to use Subic Bay for another 10 years for an annual rent of $203 million.

Invoking a clause in the 1987 Constitution, Aquino’s government formally notified the United States at the beginning of base negotiations last year that the Americans would have no legal right to remain at the Philippine bases after Sept. 16, 1991, unless the Senate approved a new treaty.

However, Administration officials said they have been told that the Aquino government will reverse itself today and give the United States a diplomatic note saying there is a one-year withdrawal period from the date the agreement is terminated. A 1966 agreement between the two countries allows this one-year period for an American pullout.

The change in position by the Philippine government is important, because it gives the United States legal authority to remain at Subic Bay over the next year while Aquino tries to win approval of a popular referendum that would let the Americans stay at the base.

Administration officials, speaking on condition that they not be identified, made clear they are hoping Aquino eventually will win approval of the referendum. “I think she’s going to pull it out,” a State Department source said.

Another senior Administration official said the United States now expects a lengthy process in which Aquino’s effort to obtain a referendum will be challenged in the Philippines Supreme Court. Meanwhile, the U.S. official said, Aquino will have to get signatures of 10% of the nation’s registered voters in favor of a referendum.

“We admire her determination as she continues the effort to put the treaty into effect,” said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher. “We support her efforts to find a way for the Philippine side to ratify the agreement, and we’ll continue to follow the process closely.”

This relatively conciliatory stance taken Monday by the Administration represented a turnabout from its mood of defiance last week. Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney said in one television interview that if the vote in the Philippine Senate goes against the bases, “We’ll pack up and move.”

Even so, echoes of the U.S. military’s earlier hard line could still be heard.

Rear Adm. Thomas A. Mercer, quoted in Monday’s issue of the Navy Times, declared that a withdrawal of U.S. naval personnel from Subic Bay would be fast and irreversible.

“It will happen very rapidly,” Mercer told the Navy publication before Aquino launched her referendum effort. “There is a (withdrawal) plan--a one-year plan. Once it starts to go, there is no way to reverse the process.”

The plan, received by the commander in chief of the U.S. Pacific Command on Friday, would halt port visits to Subic Bay by battle groups of the 7th Fleet within 30 to 60 days. Mercer added that once its future becomes clear, the Navy would begin dismantling the huge Subic facility and removing millions of dollars worth of equipment.

One Navy source said that even while Aquino campaigns to win a referendum, the Navy probably will begin drawing down its forces in the Philippines by letting departing servicemen go unreplaced. The withdrawal of nearly all military dependents after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption last June has already reduced significantly the number of Americans at the base.

“I think we’re going to go ahead and make the plans as if we were getting out,” the Navy official said. “We’re just stopping the pipeline of people going in.”

In the Philippines, Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile, a former defense minister who led the Senate fight against the new bases treaty, said that Aquino had acted illegally in calling for the popular referendum.

“A referendum is unconstitutional and a waste of money,” Enrile said. He added that forces opposed to the bases are considering legal measures, such as an appeal to the Supreme Court, to block the move.

Meanwhile, the American flag was lowered for the last time Monday at three small military installations in the Philippines--the last legacy of a 1947 bases agreement that at one time covered 27 facilities in 13 regions.

Two of the military facilities handed over to Philippine authorities--the O’Donnell and San Miguel naval communications bases--were heavily damaged by Mt. Pinatubo’s eruption, which also forced the United States to abandon the huge Clark Air Base in central Luzon. A third facility closed Monday was the Wallace Air Station in northern Luzon.

Military spokesmen said an honor guard took possession of the U.S. flag at each location; at San Miguel, a tiny Marine contingent guarding the perimeter fence was the only U.S. force left.

Despite the closeness of the Philippines Senate vote, politicians believe that a popular vote would overwhelmingly favor the treaty, largely because of the economic impact of an American withdrawal on the country’s fragile economy.

The loss of Subic Bay would cost the local economy at least 40,000 civilian jobs and wipe out about 2% of the Philippines’ gross national product. With the base’s future in doubt, many investment decisions will undoubtedly be postponed until after next year’s elections, when the character of the new government becomes clearer.

In the columned hall of the Philippines Senate, opposition senators lambasted the Aquino government for entering into a treaty that they said would give lopsided benefits to the United States. They said the economic argument in support of the treaty was an attempt to mask the government’s mismanagement of the economy.

Sen. Ernesto Maceda, echoing many opponents of the treaty, said the debate about the pact was “not only about the next 10 years but also about the past 42 years of U.S. domination of the Philippines.”

Outside the Senate chamber, thousands of bar girls and go-go dancers bused in from Olongapo, a town just outside Subic Bay, demonstrated in favor of the treaty, while thousands of students and labor union members shouted their opposition in a driving rain.

The political muddle over the referendum gave the United States extra time to consider possible alternatives to Subic, if the Senate rejection is upheld in the courts.

Most Southeast Asian nations have already ruled out extending base facilities to the United States, although Singapore has agreed to permit more U.S. naval vessels to visit there for repairs and rest stops.

Mann reported from Washington and Wallace reported from Manila. Staff writer Melissa Healy in Washington contributed to this article.

U.S. Bases in the Philippines

1) Subic Bay Naval Base

Functions: U.S. Navy’s main supply-and-repair center in western Pacific. Provides training in jungle warfare. Surveillance planes from Cubi Point air station monitor sea lanes.

Status: Philippine Senate on Monday rejected pact that would let U.S. keep base for 10 more years.

2) Clark Air Base

Functions: Former headquarters for 13th U.S. Air Force, tactical arm of the Air Force in western Pacific and Indian Ocean.

Status: Evacuated in June. Severely damaged by eruptions from nearby Mt. Pinatubo.

3) Camp John Hay

Functions: Rest and recreation center for U.S. forces.

Status: Returned in July to Philippine government.

4) Wallace Air Station

Function: Provides air defense and radar monitoring for Philippines.

Status: Returned Monday to Philippine government.

5) San Miguel Naval Communications Station

Functions: Relay station for U.S. Navy’s Pacific communications system.