Poland to Hold First Free Vote Since War : Eastern Europe: New Parliament will replace Communist-dominated assembly. But voters are turned off, and a low turnout is expected.

Polish voters will go to the polls Sunday to elect a new Parliament, one that will replace the Communist-dominated assembly that has complicated political and economic reform here for more than two years.

Although it will be the first fully free parliamentary election here since the end of World War II, public opinion surveys suggest that a low voter turnout is expected, largely because of a poor public regard for politicians and political institutions.

And when the votes are counted, further complication is virtually assured. Since no party among the 70 or more competing is likely to win more than 20% of the vote, an intense round of political horse-trading will be necessary to form a coalition capable of controlling Parliament.

The current leader in the polls is a coalition of liberal-leaning groups, the Democratic Union, headed by the former Solidarity prime minister, Tadeusz Mazowiecki, which is predicted to take about 20% of the vote.

Running second with about 15% and reportedly growing in strength is the Liberal Democratic Congress, spearheaded by today’s popular prime minister, Jan Krzysztof Bielecki.

In third place is Social Democracy of the Republic of Poland (SDRP), the successor of the Communist Party, disbanded in 1990. The SDRP, according to the polls, could gain about 10% of the seats in Parliament.

Although SDRP’s third-place ranking in the polls seems surprising, analysts note that the party has been able to draw on its old membership and organizational abilities in a way that exaggerates its significance.

Parliament has been dominated by a 65% majority of former Communists and their allies since elections in June, 1989. The parliamentary division resulted from so-called “round-table” negotiations between the old Communist leadership and Solidarity, in which Solidarity, in gaining official recognition after an eight-year ban, first broke the Communists’ monopoly on power.

Provisions of that agreement, however, have meant that Poland, which led the East European reforms of 1989, has lagged behind others in gaining a full, freely elected Parliament.

The consequences, critics say, have been that the former Communists have slowed the pace of reform legislation and that their stalling tactics have helped the old Communist apparatus, the nomenklatura, use its advantages and connections to enter into lucrative private businesses.

Leaders of the SDRP, which now bills itself as a center-left coalition that has forsaken its Communist antecedents, hope that the economic frustration of voters can give it a new lease on life.

“We can speak of renewed frustration in Poland,” said Alexander Kwasniewski, the party leader. “First, it was with 45 years of communism, but now there is also disenchantment with two years of Solidarity rule.”

Mazowiecki’s Democratic Union, which appears to be the front-runner, has difficult internal divisions to deal with: Many of its followers are split between Mazowiecki, as a possible prime ministerial candidate, and Jacek Kuron, a charismatic and controversial left-leaning activist with a long history in Polish opposition politics.

Many voters, however, seem opposed to the thoughtful but uninspiring Mazowiecki, who was badly defeated in last year’s presidential election won by Lech Walesa.

Walesa himself, while staying out of the political campaigning, has made it clear that Mazowiecki would be virtually his last choice for premier. His favorite is the current officeholder, Bielecki.

Bielecki, however, may not need Walesa’s endorsement. Only 40 years old, he has made his impression on the country as a businessman, technocrat and an advocate of speedy privatization.

Unlike many other political personalities here, he is viewed as a figure who is free of stains by the Communists or by Solidarity’s many internecine bloodlettings. Young entrepreneurs, who seem on the ascent in Polish society, favor him strongly.

Most political commentators believe that Bielecki is a strong favorite to continue in the job, although it could take days of coalition-building to confirm it.