Study Predicts Slow Rebound in Southland : * Economy: The Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce says a recovery is beginning, but it may not become robust until 1993.

Southern California is headed for a modest recovery that may not kick into full gear until 1993, as some key industries continue to lose jobs next year, according to a new forecast by the Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce.

The outlook, released Friday, predicted that the “big losers” in employment next year will be aerospace manufacturing and the federal government. By contrast, job gains are forecast for service industries, low-tech manufacturing and state and local government.

“The recovery of the Los Angeles five-county area will be a mirror image of California,” said Arthur J. Shaw, chief economist at the chamber.

The forecast came as a variety of Los Angeles business figures touted Southern California’s economic potential at a chamber-sponsored conference on the business outlook. The region’s role in the global economy, diverse industry and huge manufacturing base all were cited as long-term strengths.

Also, the big consumer base and growing population will contribute to future growth, said John C. Cushman III, president of Cushman Realty Corp. “Clearly, L.A. is not another Houston or a Denver. It is not a disaster in the making,” he said, taking exception to a recent Wall Street Journal article that used just those words to describe the real estate situation in downtown Los Angeles.

Jon P. Goodman, director of USC’s Entrepreneur Program, said firms that add value to products and know how to retain their customers should be able to thrive in today’s changing business climate.

“There is absolutely no reason at all why Los Angeles has to go through a gut-wrenching economic change,” she said.

Nonetheless, the economic experience since last year has been disappointing to many in a region that grew accustomed to booming growth in job rolls and property values during the 1980s.

More than 66,000 jobs were lost from July, 1990, to July, 1991, in the area that includes Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside and Ventura counties--largely in manufacturing, but also in wholesale and retail trade, finance and other industries, the chamber report found.

In addition, aerospace manufacturing may lose another 7,800 jobs next year, and the federal government may trim its rolls by 1,800, according to the report. Southern California could gain 245,000 jobs next year, despite those weaknesses, due to growth projected in most other categories.

“Some states are still in a recession--California is one of them,” Shaw said. “But I think we’re coming out of it right now.”