A Bit of Haste at the Creation : Will new commonwealth prove a short-lived dream?

The Soviet Union “as a subject of international law and geopolitical reality” has ceased to exist. With these words the Soviet Union’s obituary was proclaimed by the three Slavic republics that were present at its creation in 1922; its disappearance was acknowledged on behalf of the United States by Secretary of State James A. Baker III.

Defunct, too, is President Mikhail S. Gorbachev’s last desperate hope to hold on to some measure of central authority by getting the republics to agree to a new union of sovereign states. Over the weekend the republics of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus--representing more than 70% of the country’s population and 80% of its landmass--unveiled their own idea for a loose alliance, a “commonwealth of independent states” that will be open to the nine other republics of the former Soviet Union. What exactly will this commonwealth be and do? The terms defining its organization are remarkably vague, hinting at haste in conception, uncertainty of purpose and maybe even basic disagreements growing out of historic suspicions among the smaller partners about the hegemonic ambitions of their huge Russian neighbor.

VISIONS OF COOPERATION: What’s envisioned for now is a common currency and a degree of economic cooperation, perhaps even integration. That seems essential given the republics’ interdependence in the transfer of resources and goods. A promise of “coordinated radical economic reforms aimed at creating feasible market mechanisms” suggests that Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin’s plan to move quickly to free his republic from the dead hand of command economics will, more or less, be accepted by his partners.

But it’s unclear what political links will bind the members of the projected commonwealth together. And it’s unclear what functions of the moribund central government--especially in the key area of military affairs--the commonwealth states will try or be allowed to inherit. Of greatest concern to the United States, Europe and China is who will control the enormous stockpiles of strategic and tactical nuclear weapons deployed across the country, many of which are supposed to be destroyed under agreements signed by Gorbachev’s government. The leaders of the Slavic republics have tried to be reassuring. The fact remains that command and control over the nuclear arsenal may for now be a matter of some uncertainty. Can anyone really guarantee that at some point tactical nuclear arms based in one of the Central Asian republics, say, won’t be sold to the highest foreign bidder and smuggled out of the country?

VISIONS OF CHAOS: Gorbachev, the man history will remember--and honor--for perhaps unintentionally presiding over communism’s collapse, has denounced the commonwealth agreement as “illegal and dangerous” and foresees only chaos arising out of the failure of his union idea. That bleak prophecy could prove true. Ethnic conflicts in a number of regions, most prominently between Armenians and Azeris, may be close to exploding into full-scale war. No less threatening and maybe even more imminent is the prospect of major urban riots because of food and fuel shortages. The nascent commonwealth, its founders say, was prompted in part by the central government’s failure to maintain decent living standards. Yeltsin and his partners now have the enormous task of showing they can do better.

The United States and its allies must wish them well, while offering whatever help they can to try to keep matters from spinning out of control. For Gorbachev is right: The fracturing of the Soviet Union could imperil international security. That threat can be mitigated if the republics can agree quickly on a coherent and feasible program of economic and security cooperation. If they can’t, the new commonwealth may prove an ineffectual and short-lived dream.