And Now . . . the Two Koreas? : Cheer the nonaggression pact, but hold bubbly

A nonaggression pact between North and South Korea represents the end of their own Cold War the same way that a blueprint on a drawing board represents a fully loaded commercial airliner. That is: It will take a lot of hard work and a long time before either is ready to fly.

The agreement makes no mention of North Korea’s nuclear program, for example, which the West believes is focused on weapons rather than power plants; the prime ministers of both countries say they will meet later to discuss this urgent question. The agreement forswears armed attacks by either side but does not end the state of war between the two nations. It calls for military hot lines, but they are yet to be hooked up.

Still, it is better to have these two smiling rather than snarling at one another as they have since World War II left them a nation ripped in two, the north following the lead of the Soviet Union, the south the lead of the United States.

North Korea lost its bid to take over the south by military force with its 1950 invasion.

Even before then, the country was an open-air dungeon for its own people and a fortress against most of the rest of the world, shunning visitors and communications.

This, too, could change if north and south implement their promises of economic and cultural exchanges and relaxation of the north’s barriers against foreign newspapers and radio broadcasts.

With the collapse of communism in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, and with its wartime ally China now strongly urging it to take a more moderate course, North Korea has found itself in almost complete political isolation, as well as virtually bankrupt because of its failed economic dogmas.

Reports of energy and food shortages make it clear that North Korea desperately needs economic aid and trade with Japan, South Korea and the West. But whether the need is yet strong enough to persuade Kim Il Sung, one of the world’s most durable and repressive dictators, to risk a freer exchange of ideas that could threaten his rule remains an unanswered question.

Such doubts make it premature for the United States and others readily to accept the description of the document by a South Korean spokesman as “a historic milestone.” At the same time, recent events in Europe counsel against saying never.

Under the pressure of economic hardship, North Korea’s fortress could crumble one day as suddenly as the Berlin Wall came down. But much remains to be done before it is safe to cheer.