POLITICS : Cabinet Shifts in Mexico Stir Politicians

Barely halfway into his six-year term, Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari--who cannot be reelected--is beginning to look like a lame duck.

That became evident this week as an awkwardly handled Cabinet shuffle fueled speculation about the 1994 presidential succession. The circus atmosphere surrounding the shake-up indicates the difficulties that Salinas will have in getting Mexicans to concentrate on the goals he has set for the last three years of his administration.

The Cabinet changes consolidate the Planning and Budget Ministry--launch pad for Mexico’s past two presidents--into the Treasury Ministry and put a technocrat, former Planning and Budget Minister Ernesto Zedillo, in charge of the ailing Public Education Ministry, long considered a political post.

The consolidation greatly strengthens the position of Treasury Minister Pedro Aspe and boots former Education Minister Manuel Bartlett--one of Salinas’ chief rivals for the ruling party’s presidential nomination in 1988--out of the Cabinet.

“This could lead to better planning and end the continual warfare between treasury and planning and budget that has cost the jobs of many qualified public officials,” said political analyst Denise Dresser. “It may mean that educational reform is being put on the back burner, or that the government wants to dole out funds for education in more productive ways.”

But the significance of the changes was largely overshadowed by the leaks preceding the official announcement and the two days of resultant conjecture on positioning for the 1994 nomination. Mexican presidents choose their successors, and the nomination process is shrouded in the kind of mystery that attended the old and inexact science of Kremlinology.

Education Ministry sources quietly told local reporters about Bartlett’s resignation on Monday, effectively upstaging Salinas’ out-of-town signing of a constitutional amendment on agricultural reform. They also hinted that Zedillo would replace him, setting off rumors about his successor.

Taken off guard because the changes were not scheduled to be announced until the end of the week--after Salinas’ new year’s address--officials first refused to comment, then began announcing resignations and nominations piecemeal, with each announcement setting off more rumors. The whole restructuring scheme was not known publicly until late Tuesday.

Leaks are unusual in Mexico’s tightly disciplined political system, except on the eve of presidential nominations. For that reason, the events have analysts both inside and outside the government worried.

“It’s pretty evident that everyone is so busy jockeying for position that they aren’t doing their jobs,” said an official in a ministry that was not affected by the changes.

Carlos Ramirez, political columnist at the business daily El Financiero, said the politicians are out of control. “This will make it much more difficult for the president to make decisions and to carry out his programs of agricultural reform, a North American free trade agreement and controlling inflation.”

None of the programs will be scuttled, Ramirez said, but completing them will require more compromise and negotiation than might have been expected.

Bickering in the Cabinet also could complicate decision-making, Ramirez said, adding: “This always happens in Mexico. It just does not usually happen this early in a presidential term.”

Salinas’ political changes have caused resentment among many party stalwarts. Those who feel left out may simply be looking forward to a change of administration, in the hope that the new president will be more sympathetic to them.

And it looks as if there will be plenty of time for tea-leaf reading: Further elimination of Cabinet posts is likely as the government continues to streamline itself and turn over the economy to the private sector.

Top candidates for oblivion are Energy, Mines and State Industry--which by year’s end will have about 18 companies to run, compared with hundreds at the beginning of Salinas’ term--and Agricultural Reform, whose function has virtually been eliminated by constitutional changes Salinas signed this week.

That could make seats in the Cabinet--a virtual prerequisite for a presidential nomination--like a game of musical chairs, with everyone constantly looking around suspiciously to make sure he has a place to sit.