Italian Vote Rocks Establishment Parties : Election: Protest parties gain, but no clear mandate is awarded. Another center-left coalition is likely.

In the most dramatic national election results here in more than four decades, exasperated Italian voters demanding effective government on Monday humbled Establishment parties that have dominated politics since World War II.

A firebrand populist from the Italian north who seeks sweeping overhaul of the political system was the biggest winner among a galaxy of small parties running on protest tickets.

With the stunning results from the two-day vote pouring in Monday night, the depth of national discontent was as plain as the consternation among political leaders, but the call for change was more focused than its fragmented impact.

Italy clearly seeks decisive leadership to confront stubborn national problems ranging from organized crime to uncontrolled government spending, waste and corruption, but the voters, in their disgust, awarded no clear mandate.

As a consequence, Italy’s next government, like all those since 1948, will likely be a coalition formed around the center-left Christian Democrats. Analysts warn, though, that a new coalition may require new partners, may be difficult to assemble and may be too weak to govern effectively.

“This has been a referendum against the existing majority. It’s not important who’s gained or lost a few percentage points. . . . The whole lineup has been sacked,” said Eugenio Scalfari, editor of the Rome newspaper La Repubblica.

As the final votes were counted Monday, the Christian Democrats and their Socialist, Social Democratic and Liberal coalition partners appeared to have retained a slim majority in the 630-seat Chamber of Deputies but to have fallen four seats short in the 315-seat Senate.

The Christian Democrats, long favorites of the Italian middle class, the Vatican and the United States as the anti-Communist pillar of national political life, finished first Monday--but they have never run so badly since the foundation of the Italian republic after World War II.

The Christian Democrats recorded 28.6%, according to official figures, a drop of more than 5% since the last elections in 1987, and they lost 32 seats in the Chamber and 17 in the Senate.

“This is an earthquake for the entire government. It seems to me that with this vote, trust has been denied to us,” said Christian Democratic spokesman Enzo Carra.

In continental context, the Italian vote reinforced a pronounced trend in Western Europe electorates against long-entrenched government parties. This spring, French and German Establishment parties have been punished at the polls, Spain’s ruling Socialist Party is under strong popular pressure after a decade in office and Britain’s Conservative Party is forecast to lose its longstanding parliamentary majority in national elections Thursday.

Parties that have shared government with the Christian Democrats under Prime Minister Giulio Andreotti--an immediate lame duck after the vote--held their own in the balloting without marked improvement. Andreotti’s Socialist partners won about 13.6%, and the Social Democratic and Liberal Parties polled about 3% each.

“It is not easy to identify the majority, and the formation of a government will require difficult negotiations,” said Socialist leader Bettino Craxi, who was the pre-election favorite to succeed Andreotti as prime minister.

The Socialists fell short in their bid to become the leading party of the left, to the great satisfaction of Italy’s renamed Communists, who remained the always-a-bridesmaid second-largest party in Italy but who also took it on the chin.

Principal heir of the protest vote was 50-year-old Sen. Umberto Bossi, a tweedy populist whose young Lega Nord (Northern League) is based on the rich Italian north’s deep-seated antipathy toward the south in general and all-controlling Rome in particular.

“This is a moment of historic transition. . . . The entire political framework is changing,” said Bossi.

In 1987, in its first national appearance, the Lega Nord won less than 1% of the national vote and elected Bossi as its only senator. On Monday, the Lega Nord won 8.8% nationwide, garnering 56 seats in the Chamber and 26 in the Senate. In Lombardy, where the Lega Nord was born, it became the largest party, narrowly edging the Christian Democrats, according to incomplete returns.

Monday’s strong showing by the Lega Nord came mostly at the expense of the Christian Democrats in the north. It carried Bossi’s young movement past stagnant neo-fascists as the fourth-largest political grouping in Parliament after the Christian Democrats, the former Communists and the Socialists.

The neo-fascists got 5.5%, down slightly from their 1987 vote despite the presence on their slate of Alessandra Mussolini, the granddaughter of former dictator Benito Mussolini. She easily won one of the neo-fascists’ two dozen seats in a Chamber of Deputies.

In southern Italy, gripped by organized crime despite decades of government wars against it, disillusioned Christian Democrats turned to maverick reformer Leoluca Orlando, a former mayor of Palermo who broke from the Christian Democrats and assails Rome as fiercely as Bossi, although from the left of center.

Orlando’s anti-Mafia La Rete Party got 2% nationwide, winning parliamentary representation for the first time--12 seats in the Chamber--and becoming the second-largest party in parts of Sicily.