IMF Sees Global Recovery in ’93

The International Monetary Fund expects the industrial world to record solid economic growth next year after a lackluster performance in 1992, monetary sources said Tuesday.

They said the IMF’s latest economic forecast, discussed by its board this week, foresees growth in the industrial world of about 3.25% next year after a meager 2% in 1992.

“They’re looking for a strong pickup next year but I’m afraid they may be too optimistic,” one monetary source said.

Back in October, the IMF predicted that industrial countries would record growth of 2.8% this year. But it has been forced to slash that forecast as the U.S. recovery has proved slower than expected and growth in Germany and Japan has decelerated faster than anticipated.

Monetary sources said the IMF expects the United States to lead the world recovery next year, with growth picking up to 3.25% in 1993 from about 1.5% this year.

IMF staff also look for faster growth in Europe and Japan.

In Bonn, the 24-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said it was optimistic that a solid recovery would emerge in the second half in light of positive indicators from the United States.

But OECD Secretary General Jean-Claude Paye said OECD ministers would review and possibly lower its 1992 growth forecast of 2.2% at a meeting in Paris on May 18-19.