CENTRAL AMERICA : Path to Permanent Peace in Salvador Has a Few Potholes

Delay tactics by both sides in El Salvador’s suspended civil war have led to mutual claims that each side is endangering chances for a permanent peace.

But privately, both government and rebel sources as well as involved diplomats are confident that the current cease-fire will be transformed into a full-scale settlement.

BACKGROUND: After a dozen years of fighting and an estimated 75,000 deaths, the United Nations brokered a cease-fire in the Salvadoran conflict, an agreement signed Jan. 16.

The United Nations since has sent several hundred observers here to monitor the agreement, which calls for cutting the government army from 75,000 to 32,000 troops and for the total demobilization of the 7,000-man rebel force by Oct. 31.

KEY ISSUES: The Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN), the umbrella organization for the five rebel groups, has been the most alarmist about the status of the cease-fire agreement.

Its members assert that the government has continued its military operations in guerrilla-held territory, has failed to withdraw its troops into their barracks and has violated an agreement to dismantle army-controlled police forces.

FMLN leaders will meet Monday in New York with U.N. Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali to press their complaints and to ask for a more active role in forcing government compliance, saying that otherwise the peace is seriously in danger.

For its part, the government charges the FMLN with refusing to pull back into designated areas and with hiding arms.

On the FMLN side, the biggest problems involve its pledge not to pull at least 20% of its forces into designated camps by May 1. Guerrilla spokesman Roberto Canas has said they will not do so unless the army carries out a promise to dismantle its police forces.

The army officially disbanded the National Police and the Hacienda Police on March 2, but it left them intact in their units and barracks and wearing their old uniforms.

President Alfredo Cristiani argues that with the difficulties in training a new, civilian police force, it is impossible to dismiss the only units capable of keeping law and order.

But even diplomats who support the government are critical of this stance. “The army has kept to the letter of the agreements but not the spirit,” said one diplomat. Nevertheless, that envoy said the more serious obstacles come from the rebels.

Not only are the guerrillas not withdrawing into their designated areas, he said, but they are either delaying in submitting required inventories of weapons or lying about what arms they have. According to one intelligence source, “The fact is, they are caching arms all over the place.”

Perhaps so. But the army has been able to provide only one instance of hidden rebel arms, a cache uncovered last month in a refugee camp just south of San Salvador.

Privately, guerrilla leaders admit to holding back on disarming. “It would be crazy for us to give up our weapons until we’re satisfied the army is carrying out its promises,” said one commander. “It’s the only card we hold.”

OUTLOOK: Most experts, including government and FMLN officials, say in private that the disputes are mostly rhetorical, aimed at reluctant followers and public opinion. They say the points of dispute present no real threat to the peace process, at least for now.

Still, the refusal of both sides to fully comply with a schedule for demobilization and disarmament presents worrisome problems.

“If this doesn’t go off as agreed to, it could endanger (U.S.) aid,” said a diplomat. “It will be hard to explain to Congress why they should send money if this doesn’t go as planned.”

But another diplomat observed: “These are not make or break issues. Things have gone too far, and both sides have too much at stake. This war is over.”