Internal Battles Stall Ukraine Reform : Finance: Critics say competing programs are just collections of slogans and not blueprints for the future.

Now that Ukraine has entered the ranks of the International Monetary Fund, intense internal battles here between the authors of various economic programs point to a power struggle that is undermining the country’s entire process of reform.

“Every other day, I hear someone announce a new program,” said Oleksandr Savchenko, an American-educated professor of economics at Kiev University who recently quit as deputy governor of the Ukrainian National Bank, complaining of the slow progress on reform.

“We’ve seen enough programs,” he said. “Let’s have some action now.”

What Savchenko calls the “war of programs” is being waged at the pinnacle of economic decision-making power within the Ukrainian government. Leading the opposing camps are two deputies of the Ukrainian Parliament.

On one side is Oleksandr Emelyanov, an old friend of President Leonid Kravchuk since their days together as Communist apparatchiks. The Ukrainian leader appointed Emelyanov as the head of the Economics Department in the National Duma, a consultative body.

On the other side is Volodymyr Lanovoi, a young economist who is the minister of economics and one of several vice premiers.

The battle began about a month ago when Emelyanov and Lanovoi drafted separate economic programs and Kravchuk announced during a closed session of Parliament that he preferred Emelyanov’s version, which lawmakers then voted overwhelmingly to adopt.

Soon afterward, however, the Cabinet decided to present the Lanovoi program to the International Monetary Fund for approval. Since then, the two camps have been sniping at each other through the media, and it remains uncertain which plan is the official government version.

“There isn’t much difference between these two documents,” Savchenko said. “In any case, they are not programs but a selection of well-known slogans, many of which cannot be implemented and some of which actually contradict recently passed laws.”

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian economy continues to slide. According to Savchenko, production fell by 25% during the first quarter of this year; prices have risen by 14 times since this time last year; inflation continues to run at the rate of 50% to 100% a month, and the budget deficit stands at a whopping 15% of the gross national product.

“We desperately need to act out reform and not talk about it, as is happening in this battle of programs,” Savchenko stressed. “Otherwise, our economy, which is already showing all the classic ingredients, is due for a fall of the kind that has characterized many African, Asian and Latin American countries.”

Both Emelyanov and Lanovoi in their respective programs vow to reduce the deficit, control inflation, stop subsidizing inefficient enterprises and conduct other market-oriented reforms.

“But how will they do all that?” Savchenko wondered. “This is supposed to be an economic statement, not just a bunch of goals. For instance, Emelyanov promises that privatization will be complete within half a year, while Lanovoi (promises it) in a year. That’s completely unrealistic.”

The most obvious difference between the two programs is that Emelyanov wants to take Ukraine quickly out of the ruble monetary zone comprising most of the former Soviet Union, including Russia.

Kravchuk’s unwillingness to take unpopular economic measures has begun to bring comparisons to another famous waffler--former Soviet President Mikhail S. Gorbachev.

“I don’t know which path Kravchuk will take,” said Mykola Veresen, a local historian. “But I do know that Mikhail Gorbachev is now the former president of a former country--and a private citizen.”