NEWS ANALYSIS : The ‘New Nicaragua’ Still ‘at War With Itself’ : Central America: Fighting in countryside, economic stagnation are dimming hopes for a stable society.

A little more than two years after Nicaragua finally entered a period of democracy with the electoral defeat of the Marxist-Leninist Sandinista movement, the hopes for a just, stable society here are being swallowed by a lack of political and social will, a failure of leadership and some very bad luck.

In what appears to be a repeat of the mistakes of the last 150 years, the “new Nicaragua” is beset by economic stagnation, disintegrating political structures and a constant turn to violence by nearly all sectors.

To worsen these man-made disasters, nature, in the form of a three-year drought and a devastating volcanic eruption, along with a collapse in world demand for Nicaragua’s only important exports--cotton and coffee--appears to be conspiring to drive this already splintered country to chaos, if not anarchy.

“Right now,” a European diplomat said of the Nicaraguan situation, “this country lacks nearly everything that defines a working political civilization. There is no sense of a common goal, let alone a sense of community.

“The Sandinistas are split and losing popular backing and see their role almost entirely as one of deconstructive opposition. There is regular fighting in the countryside that seems to have little purpose. The government’s focus on the economy has been at the expense of a political program and political leadership, and the private sector is driving for short-term and almost-personal gains without thought of the country as a whole.

“In short, this is a very sad place.”

Or as another Western diplomat put it: “In reality, this is a return to normality. Nicaragua has been at war with itself for more than a century and a half.”

The most recent crisis here has included land seizures, road blockades, raids and ambushes by armed bands and outright battles between the army, which is still controlled by the Sandinistas, and former members of the Contras, the U.S.-backed anti-Sandinista guerrilla force that supposedly demobilized two years ago.

Who is responsible for these often-violent confrontations remains in dispute.

What is clear is that no one--for the moment, at least--has the desire or the will to end them.

Only a few of the incidents can be blamed directly on the Ex-Contras, as they are called, most notably a recent takeover of Bocayo, a provincial capital about 40 miles northeast of Managua. The army, still led by Sandinista-appointed officers, counterattacked and drove out the invaders at a cost of five Ex-Contra dead and several wounded.

While the leaders of the Ex-Contras contend they continue fighting because of the alleged Sandinista domination of the country and broken government promises, many diplomats and international observers say the groups are little more than bandits.

“These are mostly small groups of people in the mountains,” said an official of the Organization of American States, which is supposed to oversee and enforce the demobilization of the Contras. “They have no political agenda, and most of them weren’t real Contras. They simply are bandits out for themselves.”

Ex-Contras or not, political or opportunistic, these groups, estimated at only a few hundred, are giving the Sandinistas grounds to argue for a large military. The Sandinistas say the groups’ presence also supports the theory that there is a conspiracy to destroy the Sandinistas, still Nicaragua’s largest political bloc.

These claims to the contrary, most recent disruptions are the work of what are called “Ex-Compas,” former members of the Sandinista army discharged in an agreement with the government of President Violeta Barrios de Chamorro.

Now at about 21,000, the army once numbered more than 40,000 troops. The veterans are considered still largely loyal to the Sandinista movement, with some critics saying they are under direct discipline of their former officers.

“They wear army uniforms, they carry army rifles and they have army grenades,” said Ramiro Gurdian, a leading agricultural exporter and president of COSEP, an association of Nicaragua’s leading private business and professional organizations.

In a long interview in the sparse offices of his banana-exporting firm, the longtime Sandinista foe pointed to his own experience with an Ex-Compa action: “Three Sundays ago, 500 of these people showed up at my farm in Jinotega (a province in the north central part of the country) and took it over. They came in trucks and were fully armed. There is no way they could have done this without the support and help of the army.”

Sandinista officials don’t deny invasions like these but publicly say they have nothing to do with them. One official of the Sandinista National Liberation Front--as the Sandinista organization is formally known--said the group has opposed some of the takeovers.

But the business sector and diplomats, including senior OAS officials, say that is untrue; they argue that not only is there a clear reluctance by the army to confront the veterans, the Sandinista army also plans and leads the actions.

To date there has been only one serious example of the military opposition to Ex-Compas. On April 24, a group of Ex-Compas occupied Esteli, a city 36 miles north of the capital. The army finally confronted them and drove them out; one Ex-Compa was killed.

The Sandinistas argue that the uprising and invasions are spontaneous protests of the government’s refusal or inability to carry out promises of jobs and land for the veterans.

Oddly, the government accepts this view and argues against a more militant approach. “These are poor people who only want a better life,” Antonio Lacayo, the president’s chief adviser, recently told reporters. “That doesn’t justify killing them.”

Gurdian, the business leader, said: “Lacayo has told me directly that they (the Ex-Compas) are justified, that the government hasn’t been able to keep its promises. Lacayo is a good guy, but he is completely wrong.”

Behind the government attitude is an agreement reached after the election that allowed the Sandinistas to control the army and also let Humberto Ortega, one of the nine members of the Sandinista Front’s directorate, to continue as defense minister. The idea was to obtain cooperation of the outgoing regime while the government repaired and restructured an economy devastated by more than a decade of war and mismanagement.

According to many diplomats and critics, the problem is that the Sandinistas have refused to cooperate; instead, many say, they have tried to sabotage the economic efforts. “They say they recognize the need for stability, investment and growth,” the European diplomat said. “But, in fact, maybe for psychological reasons, maybe because their long-term plans demand it, they keep up destructive behavior.”

Gurdian put it more plainly: “They lie. They say they want to play football, but when they enter the stadium they say the rules have changed and the game now is baseball.”

Other diplomats argue that part of the fault lies with the government. “It made economic recovery the No. 1 goal,” said one foreign political expert, “but (officials) ignored political considerations and have made too many concessions.”

Whatever the cause, the result has been a political and economic failure. Even pro-government diplomats concede that Chamorro has little public support.

All of the political uncertainty and the uproar over the land grabs and constant disruptions, particularly coming now during planting season, have all but broken the country economically. Although the government projected 9% growth in the economy this year, experts predict real growth will be closer to 1%. Real unemployment exceeds 30%, and the country imported nearly $600 million more in goods than it exported last year.

Added to all that is nature. Nicaragua is entering a fourth year of drought, compromising not only agriculture but forcing severe cuts in electricity; that hurts industry and commerce.

Capping this was the volcanic eruption earlier this year in one of the country’s most fertile areas. “It will be years before they will recover from that,” said a U.N. expert, “even if it rains every day.”

To business leader Gurdian, this wasting of the economy may hold the key to forcing the government and the Sandinistas to change their policies. “For one thing, the workers won’t accept this,” he said. “I have 600 people on my farm, and they want to work. I am still paying them, but when the money runs out they are going to blame the army, not me.

“But what really will help is when the World Bank and the other international financial groups withhold aid and loans. Then the government and the Sandinistas will understand. They (the Sandinistas) do understand international pressure.”

An OAS official disagreed, saying: “I don’t know. In my personal opinion, there has been no political leadership, no political experience and no common will on any side. That is Nicaragua’s past and present, and I don’t see anything here to cut that flow of history.”