NEWS ANALYSIS : Support Begins to Crumble for Serbian Leader

Shunned by the world, abandoned by former allies and unable to control the violence consuming his country, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic appears in deep political trouble.

United Nations sanctions imposed a week ago have had little visible effect on an economy already ravaged by war, but they have struck a collapsing blow to the Serbian psyche, especially in prosperous and cosmopolitan Belgrade.

“It’s embarrassing for us to have to wait in line for gasoline. We haven’t done anything wrong,” insisted a journalist for the Belgrade daily Express Politika, one of the most staunchly pro-Milosevic newspapers in circulation.

Major pillars of support under Milosevic and his Serbian Socialist Party have begun to crumble, suggesting that a popular movement to depose him may be taking shape.

The Serbian Orthodox Church has denounced the Milosevic regime and described the Serbian people as “the victims of Communist tyranny.” A statement issued by the Bishops’ Conference 10 days ago said the church was “openly distancing itself from this government” and indirectly suggested Milosevic should step down.

At a gathering last week, 46 members of the Serbian Academy of Sciences--about one-third of the prestigious body long allied with the leadership--signed a petition demanding that Milosevic resign.

Even the president of Montenegro, the only former Yugoslav republic still linked to Serbia in a newly proclaimed federation, has put Milosevic and his pariah state at arm’s length.

Asked if Montenegrins might be rethinking the wisdom of their alliance with Serbia, President Momir Bulatovic told the Associated Press last week that his tiny republic of 600,000 could not long endure sanctions and that “the interests of the people of Montenegro come first.”

A May 31 election to seat a Parliament for the new two-republic Yugoslav federation gave Milosevic’s party a slight majority, with the Socialists taking 73 of 138 seats. But only 56% of eligible voters took part in the balloting--an unusually low turnout in a country where elections in the past have drawn upward of 90%.

The political indicators combine to show a huge loss of popular backing for Milosevic, who won 70% of the vote for president in December, 1990, and whose party fills 80% of the Serbian Parliament.

Many Serbs have begun to blame Milosevic for fomenting aggression against Bosnia-Herzegovina, a newly independent republic where Serbs, Croats and Muslims lived in harmony for decades.

Claims by the state-run Serbian media that Serbs in Bosnia were endangered by the republic’s secession ring hollow in Belgrade. Many of the Bosnian Serbs flushed from their homes by the fighting and now taking refuge in Serbia blame federal army troops and Serbian guerrillas for instigating the conflict.

The cost of caring for more than 300,000 war refugees in Serbia has added another burden to the beleaguered economy. Due to repeated money-printings to bankroll the war against Croatia last year, Serbia suffers hyperinflation now estimated at 120,000% a year and conditions approaching those of Germany’s Weimar Republic that led to the rise of fascism in the 1930s.

Despite Milosevic’s popularity tailspin, which is accelerated by the economic crisis, the president is not believed to be in imminent danger of being toppled.

“I don’t see who it is that would move into the leadership after him. There’s no one. The so-called democratic forces are not ready,” a senior Western diplomat said. “But he’s in trouble. There’s no doubt about it. Some of the people in the Academy of Sciences (who signed the petition to oust Milosevic) are Serb nationalists, and the Serbian Orthodox Church position is unprecedented.”

Serbian Renewal Movement leader Vuk Draskovic has called for anti-regime demonstrations toward the end of the month, acknowledging the current lack of momentum for ousting Milosevic and likely hoping that more Serbs will join his side as the sanctions begin to bite.

However, the opposition is poorly organized and badly split, and many parties embrace the same destructive nationalism espoused by Milosevic.

Crown Prince Alexander, heir to the Serbian throne that has been empty since his father fled the Nazi occupation of Yugoslavia in 1941, plans to return to Serbia late this month to help the fractured opposition reorganize, his London office announced last week.

Growing social unrest and pressure for restoring the monarchy may combine to expose Milosevic to the first real threat to his power. But even the opposition has taken a go-slow approach to deposing the president, fearing that a bloody confrontation with Milosevic loyalists or a military coup would follow.

The extent to which Milosevic controls the giant and heavily armed Yugoslav People’s Army is unclear. The top ranks were recently purged of ardent Communists and non-Serbs, leaving a younger, more nationalist officers’ corps that is said to be eager to repair its image after the bungled invasion of Slovenia last year and a chaotic and costly fight with Croatia.

If the opposition moves to oust Milosevic, many predict riots or even a Serb-versus-Serb civil war. Under such conditions, the army is believed to be the only force capable of restoring order.

“A military takeover would not likely be perceived as an improvement in the situation or a move that could be expected to result in lifting of the sanctions,” one diplomat said.

A transitional government of national reconciliation has been proposed by the Democratic Party, which steers the least nationalist course through the turbulence of Serbian politics.

“Neither the government nor the opposition has a majority now, which means some kind of compromise should be worked out,” the Democrats’ Zoran Djindjic said.

The question that remains open is whether Milosevic would ever agree to share power or, in the event of widespread rioting, might seriously consider stepping down.

“My gut feeling about him is that he is self-destructive,” one of the Western diplomats said. “He has destroyed everything he has touched--Yugoslavia, now Serbia. I don’t see him gracefully stepping down.”