Derailing the Pan-Europe Train : At first, the unity treaty seemed to be a shoo-in, but no more

In recent years European economic and monetary union had seemed almost inevitable. No longer. After the Danish vote June 2 that rejected the Maastricht Treaty, which in complex negotiated detail describes the proposed union, all bets are off. No one is certain what will happen next.

Today Irish voters go to the polls. Like the Danes, they can vote the treaty up or down. Even if the treaty is approved, as expected, it may still have to be renegotiated.

At first Britain, one of the 12 European Community countries that helped put the treaty together, acted as if the Danish rejection were only a minor setback. Prime Minister John Major argued that Maastricht was the best version of European union that Britain could hope to get. Even so, by last week Major was publicly implying a less inflexible line.

He had to. His outspoken predecessor, Margaret Thatcher, is vowing a campaign to require a Danish-style up-or-down vote in Britain. For many years a severe critic of union, Thatcher believes that if given a choice British voters will reject it.

That’s possible also in France, where President Francois Mitterrand’s government recently announced that, previous assurances notwithstanding, a referendum will be held, perhaps in September. Many Germans would also like a chance to vote on the union treaty.

Proponents of greater European union fear direct democracy in this case. They believe the issues are too complex for the general electorate to grasp, and they worry that nationalistic tendencies will inevitably relegate the proposed new organization to political purgatory for many years. That may be true, but the call for plebiscites in all the countries of the European Community is hard to ignore. If union ever does come, it will have a profound effect on the lives of all Europeans. They should have a direct say in their future.

The treaty was designed to create a common currency, impose a common citizenship and enforce common policies. Avid Europeanists fear that if the process is slowed down, union may never come to pass. But if the process is not slowed down, union may never be realized.