After 15 Long Years, a Dramatic Change : A new Israeli coalition, led by Labor, could pull the plug on disputed-territories policy

Israel appears to have been struck by a political earthquake of startling magnitude. After enduring one of the duller campaigns in recent history, Israeli voters went to the polls to register their weariness with the ruling regime. Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir’s right-wing Likud Party, which has held or shared power for the last 15 years, seems not only to have lost its hold on office but to have suffered a humiliating repudiation. Though a final count is awaited, it appears all but certain that a center-left government headed by Yitzhak Rabin will soon take power.

Labor’s almost inevitable chief coalition partner would be the left-wing Meretz Party, headed by the dovish Shulamit Aloni. Meretz, like much of Labor, views as a major obstacle to peace the settlement activity in the disputed territories to which Likud has been so heavily committed. It favors political and territorial compromise with the Palestinians. Rabin has strong differences with Meretz, not least over its sympathy for the idea of a separate Palestinian state. But he says he is ready to implement autonomy for the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank within six to nine months, a position also strongly favored by the United States. The apparent Likud defeat in any event gives new life to the American-sponsored peace process.

The election could well mark the end of a political era. There may now be a greater chance than ever that Israel’s chaotic multiparty system, based on casting ballots for parties rather than direct election of representatives, will be reformed. A chief goal should be to eliminate the disproportionate and distorting political clout wielded over the years by some of the smaller factions, not least the religious parties. This election may also well be the last for a number of long-prominent political figures whose careers date back to the creation of the state 44 years ago. Shamir is now 76, Rabin is 70. Younger figures wait impatiently in the wings.

The components of Likud’s defeat await analysis. How much of the vote for its opponents was a vote for a more dynamic involvement in the peace process? How much was prompted by anger and disgust over its economic policies, including feverish spending on West Bank settlements? How much came from protesting recent Russian immigrants, who found--after being encouraged for years to move to Israel--that Israel was woefully unprepared to receive them? The explanations in time will emerge. For now it is the result that matters, and that result is close to revolutionary.