Home Prices Fall by 1.3%, Sales by 13.4%

The average price of a single-family home in Ventura County and the number of homes sold in the county both dropped during the past year, but not as much as in other areas of Southern California.

The average home price declined 1.3% in the county during the past year, while the number of homes purchased dropped by 13.4%, according to a new survey released Tuesday.

The report showed a similar trend for Southern California, but the regional decline was even greater. Home prices fell an average of 2.2% and the number of units purchased dropped by 19.5% regionally.

The survey results are a strong indicator that a market recovery is still far off, said Nima Nattagh, a research analyst at TRW REDI Property Data, the Riverside-based firm that conducted the housing study.

Even with interest rates dropping to their lowest levels in 19 years, prospective home buyers are still reluctant to take the bait because of the continuing recession and the fear of losing their jobs, Nattagh said.

“For most people, buying a house is the single most important investment they will make in their lifetime,” Nattagh said. “Under these economic conditions, I don’t think people are willing to commit themselves to buying a home.”

The average price of a Ventura County home fell from $251,629 in June, 1991, to $248,287 last month, according to the housing survey. Interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage also declined from 9.6% to 8.2% during the same period.

Still, the number of new and existing homes sold in the county dropped from 1,018 to 882, the study found.

“Prices are certainly dropping, but with the high unemployment rate, lack of job security and falling income levels it doesn’t seem to matter all that much,” Nattagh said.

But some county realtors disagreed with the findings in the housing survey, saying the market is more stable than the report indicates.

For example, the number of homes sold in the city of Ventura dropped from 634 to 617 during the past year, representing a 2.7% decrease, said George Kite, president of the Ventura Assn. of Realtors.

“I don’t consider that a big drop,” Kite said. “The number of sales have been rock steady the last 2 1/2 years.”

Kite said the average house in Ventura sells for $225,741, compared to $247,700 last year.

But Nattagh said that while the average price of an existing home in the county fell by 1.5% during the past year, the average price of a new home increased by 10.3%.

At $314,554, the average price of a new home in Ventura County was the highest in the six counties surveyed. Orange County was second, with new homes averaging $254,204.

Nattagh blames the high cost of a new home in Ventura County for the 50.3% decline in new home sales during the past year.

Meanwhile, the number of existing houses sold during the past year declined by 5%, which Nattagh said is not a good sign in terms of an economic recovery.

“The consensus within the industry is that any market recovery that might take place will be led by a boost in purchases of existing homes, and the fact that we are witnessing a deterioration of this segment of the market is a worrying sign,” he said.

He said that as long as unemployment remains high the number of all home sales will probably not improve significantly during the next year.

The county’s unemployment rate in June was 6.9%, compared to 9.5% statewide, according to the state Employment Development Department.

Kite and Nattagh both believe the days of rapid appreciation of housing are gone.

“I think people better get used to a nominal appreciation of zero to 5%, at least for the next year,” Nattagh said. Kite said he does not expect to see housing prices increase more than 2% during the next 12 months.

Home Sales

For both new and existing homes

Average Price of All Homes

% Change County June 1992 June 1991 plus or minus Ventura $248,287 $251,629 -1.3% Los Angeles $247,669 $259,799 -4.7% Orange $250,160 $256,558 -2.5% Riverside $158,379 $152,196 4.1% San Bernardino $140,533 $139,619 0.6% San Diego $216,893 $212,150 2.2% So. California $220,951 $226,003 -2.2%

Number of All Homes Sold

% Change County June 1992 June 1991 plus or minus Ventura 882 1,018 -13.4% Los Angeles 7,346 9,530 -22.9% Orange 3,021 3,771 -19.9% Riverside 2,077 2,573 -19.3% San Bernardino 2,109 2,757 -23.5% San Diego 2,662 2,830 -5.9% So. California 18,097 22,479 -19.5%

Sources: TRW REDI Property Data