The Idea That Must Not Die : French vote is at best a yellow light for Europe

The bold treaty on European unity that was signed late last year in the Dutch city of Maastricht remains alive after Sunday’s extremely tight referendum in France, but its condition is guarded and its long-term survival is shadowed with doubt.

Attending physicians--to extend the metaphor a bit--are concerned. German Chancellor Helmut Kohl and French President Francois Mitterrand plan crisis talks today. British Prime Minister John Major has called an emergency meeting of European Community leaders for next month. Major, representing a country that has shown at best modest enthusiasm for the closer alignment of national policies that Maastricht seeks, says Europe must take a “profound look” at where it’s headed. Kohl and Mitterrand, aides say, want to talk about ways to involve their publics in the debate about European unity.

The recognition that many Europeans feel ignored and uneasy about the sweeping implications of the treaty comes late. Three months ago slightly more than half of all Danish voters said no to Maastricht; in Britain, polls indicate that a referendum on the treaty could lose by 2 to 1.

TOO BUREAUCRATIC?: The skeptics are worried about a lot of things, some affecting their pocketbooks, some their sense of nationhood. The treaty would yield many national powers to the unelected officials of various EC-related institutions--in other words, to bureaucrats. The turmoil in financial markets last week deepened doubts in Britain and Italy, where currencies had to be devalued against the powerful mark--a currency that inflation-wary Bonn kept bucked up in part through stubbornly high interest rates. Now, in Germany itself calls are increasingly being heard for a popular vote on the treaty.

TOO FAST?: Has Western Europe been moving too rapidly, too ambitiously toward unity? The national leaders who have been the greatest supporters of integrative efforts would argue that both the Continent’s centuries-long history of internecine warfare and the needs of the new global economy require the cooperation that Maastricht implies. Others would argue that Maastricht was an instance where the politicians marched too far ahead of the people they represent.

Americans have a much bigger stake than they might think in what the EC does. American businesses are watching closely, because a good part of this country’s economy--and its jobs--are indissolubly connected with Europe’s economic health. Most experts believe an economically united Europe would greatly expand the market there for U.S. goods and services. Nearly 30% of all U.S. exports go to Western Europe, and export growth is certain to remain of key importance to American economic recovery. But uncertainties over markets induce caution when it comes to investing in new equipment and jobs.

The challenge facing Europe is somehow to be able to salvage the value in a movement that, though now stalled, could help create a new world economic order.