Little New Aid Pledged to Ex-Soviets : Economy: Conference in Tokyo tries to coordinate help for Russia and sister republics.

The capitalist world offered sympathy, advice and a little more money Thursday to the beleaguered republics of the former Soviet Union, which have lost about a quarter or more of their economic output since the fall of communism.

“It is important . . . for us to acknowledge the hardships which the process of economic reforms is bringing to the people of the former Soviet Union,” Acting Secretary of State Lawrence S. Eagleburger told a conference attended by about 70 nations and 20 international groups; they are trying to coordinate aid programs for Russia and its sister republics.

“It is regrettably true that we are going to have to deal with problems in this area for some time to come,” he said. “Ironically, states that have undertaken the most comprehensive reforms may experience the greatest pain in the short term.”

The International Monetary Fund estimates that economic output in Russia will decline by 20% this year; estimates for other republics are worse. Foreign Minister Tofig Gassimov of Azerbaijan said his republic has suffered a loss of almost 70% of its gross national product since January.

The economic disintegration came despite billions of dollars in international aid this year. All participants agreed the need will remain critical next year, but comparatively little new money was pledged.

The IMF estimated that Russia alone will need about $22 billion in outside financing next year. No one seemed to know where that kind of money would come from.

Japanese Foreign Minister Michio Watanabe said his government will provide $100 million in new aid, most of it targeted at the Russian Far East and the Central Asian republics.

Eagleburger said the United States will supply almost $450 million in food and medicine this winter, but only $100 million of that pledge was new money.

Germany’s vice foreign minister, Hans Lautenschlager, said his country has provided more than $50 billion in loans and grants to the former Soviet republics since 1989 but added: “We have reached the limits of our financial capabilities.”

Although the references were usually veiled, most participants expressed concern that economic instability could produce political chaos in the heartland of the Euro-Asian landmass, an area with a population exceeding 260 million and with tens of thousands of nuclear weapons. “Sociopolitical instability and conflicts in some parts of the new independent states are sources of grave concern to all of us,” said Japanese Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa.

Eagleburger noted: “There is no question that conservative forces are trying, both in Ukraine and Russia, to disrupt the reform process. I think it’s going to be a tough time for the reformers. But I think, in the last analysis, it’s fairly clear that without reform, there’s not going to be much in the way of economic advances.”

The conference was the third--and last--follow-up to a session conducted last January, less than a month after the Soviet Union disintegrated. In the 10 months since that Washington meeting, conditions have clearly worsened in most of the republics.

At the Tokyo conference Thursday, special working groups--established in January to study the food, medicine, shelter and energy needs of the former Soviet republics--issued their final reports. Despite the international effort, the groups said the remaining problems are daunting.

The group added that, if Yugoslav-style ethnic warfare breaks out in the former Soviet Union, it will be impossible to accommodate potential refugees.