Numbers Don’t Favor a Pardon for Weinberger : Bush has granted only 38, a small figure when compared to Reagan’s 393, Carter’s 534 and Ford’s 382.

If numbers are any guide, it is unlikely that former Defense Secretary Caspar W. Weinberger or any other Iran-Contra defendants will be pardoned by President Bush.

The power of the presidential pardon--which can be exercised on behalf of convicted criminals and defendants awaiting trial--has been used only 38 times by Bush, far fewer than any other President in this century. He also has been less willing to grant commutations--or sentence reductions--having agreed to only one in his four-year term.

In comparison, Ronald Reagan--no less a hard line law-and-order advocate--issued 393 pardons and 13 commutations in eight years in the White House. Jimmy Carter, who like Bush served one term, granted 534 pardons and 32 commutations.

Even William McKinley, whose White House term was cut short by assassination, outdid Bush with 292 pardons and 123 commutations. And Gerald R. Ford, with less than four years in office, topped Bush’s record with 382 pardons and 27 commutations.

A final round of executive clemency is thought likely before Bush leaves office, but there is virtually no chance he would grant enough to match his predecessors.

BACKGROUND: The ability to pardon is bestowed on a President by Article II of the Constitution. It says the chief executive “shall have power to grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States, except in cases of impeachment.”

For many felons, a pardon is the only way to regain civil rights lost through a conviction, although some states, such as California, restore at least some of those rights after a sentence has been served.

Many applicants regard a pardon as an act of forgiveness or a way of having the stigma of a conviction removed--even though convicted felons who receive pardons still must list convictions on job or license applications that ask for such information. The existence of a pardon may be included, however.

Over the years, high-profile cases have included Reagan’s pardon of George Steinbrenner of New York Yankees fame, who was convicted of Watergate-era violations; Carter’s commutation of Patricia Hearst’s sentence and the commutation granted by Richard M. Nixon that freed former Teamsters President James R. Hoffa.

ISSUES: According to a Justice Department official, the few pardons granted by Bush reflect a trend that began 15 years ago during the Carter Administration.

Presidents are “taking a more exacting approach to giving a pardon,” the official said. The process, which begins with the department’s pardon attorney, now focuses more on “a convicted felon’s ability to have turned his life around and made meritorious contributions to society and the community.”

In addition, interest in obtaining pardons has dropped, as more states routinely restore civil rights after a sentence is served.

Even more striking than the decline in pardons is a decline in commutations, explained in part by changes in sentencing guidelines. With fewer sentences seen as unduly severe, there are fewer grounds on which to seek commutation.

OUTLOOK: For Weinberger, 75, there is still some reason for him to hope that he might be excused from charges in the arms-for-hostages deal that became known as Iran-Contra. (His trial, on five counts of lying and misleading Congress and prosecutors in their investigation of the scandal, is set to begin Jan. 5.) Executive clemency in such high-profile cases is often unrelated to a President’s proclivity for granting other pardons.

During his first year in office, for instance, Carter pardoned no one and commuted only one prisoner’s time behind bars. That one prisoner was G. Gordon Liddy, mastermind of the Watergate burglary. Three months after taking office, Carter cut 12 years off Liddy’s 20-year sentence--the toughest punishment imposed in the crime that forced President Nixon from office--making Liddy eligible for the parole that he received later that year.

Some pardon authorities see a parallel between the Liddy and Weinberger cases--even though Weinberger has not been convicted of any crime.

Liddy initially sought the intervention of President Ford, but Ford already had pardoned Nixon, an act that contributed to his defeat by Carter.

When Ford chose not to respond to Liddy’s plea, the decision was left to Carter, who, a spokesman said, acted “in the interests of equity and fairness based on a comparison of Mr. Liddy’s sentence with those of all the others convicted in Watergate-related proceedings.”

Similarly, a decision by Bush to set Weinberger free before trial next month may bring a cost he is not willing to incur. Weinberger’s own notes of a key White House meeting conflicted with Bush’s claim that he was “out of the loop” on the arms-for-hostages scheme, and avoiding Weinberger’s trial could be read as a step to prevent other damaging facts from emerging.

That would leave the question of clemency for Weinberger to incoming President Bill Clinton, like Carter a former governor accustomed to the exercise of executive clemency.