Troubled Macedonia Fears Balkan War Could Spread, Engulf Republic : Nationalism: Sanctions aimed at Serbia also hurt its neighbor. Few expect recognition from EC summit.

Consider that:

* The passports of Macedonia’s 2 million people are rejected at international borders.

* The leadership of President Kiro Gligorov, who has urged patience and moderation in the face of adversity, may soon fall to an extremist nationalist faction.

* One-third of the Macedonian work force has been inadvertently idled by United Nations sanctions against Serbia, and private homes are cold this winter because of a shortage of heating fuel.

* In this landlocked corner of the former Yugoslav federation, there is a widespread fear of being engulfed by the Balkan war raging nearby and becoming the catalyst for a broader conflict with shocking levels of carnage.

With all the hardships and hazards caused by the West’s refusal to recognize Macedonia, many of its people have begun angrily asking whether it is Serbia or Macedonia that is being treated as an international pariah.

“What did we do to deserve this? Our whole economy, every member of society is suffering,” said Katerina Petkova, 36, a trade school teacher. “It’s so obvious that we are being treated unfairly, yet I doubt this will soon change.”

Extension of diplomatic ties to Macedonia is one of the many divisive issues on the agenda of this weekend’s European Community summit in Edinburgh, Scotland. But with Greece steadfastly blocking recognition because it objects to Macedonia’s name, few here are counting on salvation.

At the urging of Gligorov, who has sought to ease Greek fears that his nation covets territory in Greece’s northern province of the same name, Macedonian lawmakers have been engaged in a fierce debate for two days on a proposal to change the republic’s name--at least for diplomatic purposes--to the Republic of Macedonia (Skopje).

That name change has already been rejected as insufficient by Athens, which insists that this state that emerged within the Yugoslav federation in 1944 wholly abandon its name.

Gligorov’s call for a compromise was met with a storm of protest from nationalist radicals in Parliament and prompted a demonstration Thursday by hundreds of students opposed to any sign of capitulation to Greece.

But the student protest here was an almost inaudible croak compared with the escalating outcry across the border. An officially inspired rally drew more than 1 million Greeks to the streets of central Athens to demand that the EC continue to deny recognition to Macedonia. Greek workers got the afternoon off to take part in the protest, and many were bused in from the provinces.

Skopje authorities contend they are close to the end of their ability to deter retaliatory outbursts by Macedonians angered by their international isolation.

“History has proven that one nationalism, one extremism, feeds another,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Risto Nikovski, warning that Gligorov and the current government could be forced from power if they fail to win a reprieve from Macedonia’s diplomatic shackles.

“A moderate policy proves insufficient,” Nikovski said, gesturing toward the Parliament where Gligorov was pelted with accusations by nationalist opponents that he had failed to defend the country against Greek political intrigue. “What is happening in Parliament is ridiculous, but (people feel) they have no way out.”

Government spokeswoman Mira Jankovska said the Edinburgh summit is probably the last chance for survival of the current leadership, although she predicted that the issue of Macedonian recognition is unlikely to be positively resolved. “We are asking God to help us,” she said. “Europe and Greece must understand this situation, because if the war spreads to Macedonia, it would not spare Greece.”

Throughout the strife-torn Balkans, concern is growing that Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic may deliberately ignite a conflict with ethnic Albanians in Kosovo province to create a state of emergency that would allow him to stay in power. In the event of Serbian aggression against Kosovo, Macedonia’s considerable Albanian minority could be drawn into the fighting, or the friendless republic could be invaded by Serbia on the pretext of preventing such an engagement.

Longstanding territorial claims on Macedonia among Greece, Bulgaria and Albania threaten to pull them in, as well, fanning the third Balkan war this century into an uncontrollable conflagration.

Foreign observers sent to investigate conditions in Macedonia have been virtually unanimous in their predictions of disaster unless the republic is allowed into the community of nations. After a three-month stint as ambassador to Macedonia for the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, Robert Frowick warned last week of a “maelstrom of war” consuming the Balkans and urged recognition as well as deployment of U.N. peacekeepers.

The head of an EC team monitoring Macedonian compliance with U.N. sanctions against Serbia expressed many of the same concerns as Frowick and added that Macedonia is suffering as much if not more than Serbia as a result of the embargo. “The only good transshipment route for (Macedonia) is through Serbia, but that is prohibited by the new measures” to strengthen sanctions, said Canadian customs official Roger Belair, on loan to the EC monitoring mission.

Belair said he recommends exemptions for Macedonia. It is effectively cut off from international trade by: an economic blockade imposed by Greece; prohibitions against shipping through Serbia; lack of recognized passports for bypassing the sanctioned Yugoslav territory, and a lack of road and rail links with Albania. “Recognition would be most important for these people,” said Belair.

Macedonia and Slovenia were the only two of the former Yugoslavia’s six republics judged a year ago to meet all criteria for EC recognition. The Western trading bloc has extended relations to Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina but has repeatedly delayed action on Macedonia’s request in deference to the objections of Greece, a member nation.

Dutch Foreign Minister Hans van den Broek warned Monday that the Balkan conflict is poised to spread to Kosovo and Macedonia. He urged allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to act to prevent that.

The U.N. secretary general has recommended a peacekeeping force for Macedonia, which may be authorized this week, said Britain’s U.N. ambassador, David Hannay.

Nikovski, the deputy foreign minister, welcomed the offer as “psychological and moral support.”