COMMENTARY ON ORANGE COUNTY’S FUTURE : Consumer Confidence Fading; We Need an Economic Summit : The economy and the lack of jobs are foremost in the minds of residents, a new survey shows. Traffic is no longer considered the most serious public policy issue.

As Orange County languishes in its third year of recession, residents’ confidence in the economy has taken a severe blow. And though there have been recent sightings of a glimmer of light on the national horizon, California is expected to see little economic improvement next year. With the state outlook continuing to be dark, and a national economic stimulus plan unlikely to have an immediate impact here, the county needs to take steps to chart its own economic future in 1993.

Orange County has seen significant changes brought about by the lingering recession. In the past few years, the county has gone from a burgeoning job market to layoffs, from spiraling housing prices to sinking property values, and from big gains in household incomes to a state of faltering finances. The local mood was so exuberant during the boom years of the 1980s that fears and uncertainty about the ailing economy seem heightened in the 1990s.

The 1992 Orange County Annual Survey, a random telephone survey of 1,012 residents, shows that the county’s abrupt economic reversal has fundamentally changed residents’ everyday lives and affected a gamut of attitudes about local issues.

* Traffic is no longer considered the most serious public policy issue in Orange County, as jobs and the economy have supplanted the perennial No. 1 complaint.

* Consumer confidence is reaching new lows, and residents have become cautious buyers. Since the local economy is heavily dependent on consumer spending, these pessimistic attitudes are directly affecting the length and severity of the recession.

* Household income growth has stopped after experiencing healthy gains throughout the 1980s. A combination of layoffs, fewer hours worked, fewer pay raises, less in sales commissions and declining interest income has cut residents’ earnings and raised financial fears.

* Local concerns about environmental issues, growth and development seem to have waned as economic worries have become more pressing. In reality, growth is less of an issue now because building has slowed these past few years.

* Charitable giving is significantly lower than in previous years. Many residents have stopped giving to charities altogether, while others have sharply reduced their donations. Local charitable needs, meanwhile, have risen.

* On the positive side, economic pressures have reduced the number of commuters driving alone to work, and many solo drivers now seem willing to try public transit and car-pooling. This could improve traffic flow and reduce air pollution--certainly welcome changes in our county.

* An ironic bright note is that hard economic times appear to have increased residents’ awareness of a variety of community problems, such as crime, schools, health-care access and AIDS. Recognition of these problems is the first step toward solving them.

What can be done to help the Orange County economy out of the doldrums? We propose that local governments, business, labor leaders, charitable groups and educators confer at an Orange County Economic Summit early in 1993. This meeting of minds would examine ways to quickly get us from the stagnant economy of today to the prosperity that could be just around the corner.

Orange County has many assets that should make residents optimistic about its economic future. With a concerted effort by the public and private sectors, the county should be able to move into an expansion mode again for these reasons:

* In the 1992 annual survey, residents emphasized the role of high-tech industries, such as computers and biotechnology, for the county’s future, recognizing that the local economy needs to change. With its existing critical mass of high-tech companies and the research and development support of local universities, Orange County is well-positioned to become a center for these industries.

* The county stands to benefit from increased international trade brought about by the North American Free Trade Agreement and the resumption of ties with Vietnam. Our Pacific Rim location, and our Latino and Asian communities and businesses, assure us that the county will be a major player in these new trade arenas.

* Measure M sales tax transportation projects already in progress throughout the county are a model for what the Clinton Administration is proposing--stimulating the economy through construction projects and investing public funds in the infrastructure to improve economic prospects for the future.

* Disneyland’s expansion should also boost the Orange County economy by increasing tourism dollars, redeveloping blighted urban neighborhoods and, most of all, creating new jobs.

* The hard-hit aerospace industry will make new products and find new domestic and world markets. Their Cold War talents will be turned toward improving transportation and communications.

* Local housing has become less expensive through the price correction and builders’ focus on first-time buyers. The greater supply of affordable housing will help local job growth, which could stem the tide of people, and companies, moving inland.

The Orange County Economic Summit would be a move toward solving Orange County’s new top problem--jobs and the economy. Using the recent national economic summit as a model, such a meeting would identify the issues, set goals and find ways to coordinate the efforts of local government, business, labor and community leaders. Orange County has the entrepreneurial talent to put to this purpose, as shown by the number of local people who have been called on by President-elect Bill Clinton and Gov. Pete Wilson for their economic advice.

Rather than being limited to an agenda of short-term solutions, the summit should also focus on how to avoid the cycle of despair and violence that gripped Los Angeles last spring. We need a new public-policy agenda that includes plans not only for creating more high-paying jobs, but for taking care of the homeless, providing health care for the poor, dealing with gang violence and improving public education. Instead of returning to what we were, we can move on to something new and better.

Until the local recovery begins, the issue of jobs and the economy is likely to remain the dominant concern in Orange County.

This January, the Orange County Board of Supervisors’ first order of business should be to call an economic summit to help restore local confidence and get our economy moving again.