GOVERNMENT : Mulroney’s Next Step a Mystery : Will Canada’s unpopular prime minister quit? The guessing game has become a national pastime.

Prime Minister Brian Mulroney shuffled his Cabinet this week, making former Justice Minister Kim Campbell the first female defense minister of Canada.

Does that mean Campbell will be the next prime minister?

Such speculation dominates political discussions in Canada these days. Mulroney, an unpopular prime minister if ever there was one, must call an election by fall, and before doing so, he must decide whether to stay on as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.

Mulroney isn’t dropping any hints, so Canadians are left to scrutinize his every speech, action and gesture--even the guest lists at his parties--for clues: Will the embattled prime minister dare lead his party into the electoral fray? If not, who will his successor be?

The public’s rapt attention stems from the widespread hope here that Mulroney, who has held the job since September, 1984, and is now in his second term, will resign. Opinion polls show that he has the lowest approval rating of any prime minister in Canadian history, thanks to a deep recession, prolonged constitutional wrangling and his own narcissistic style.

“His presence permanently aggravates the national mood,” says William Thorsell, editor in chief of the Globe and Mail in Toronto.

Adds columnist and former Conservative adviser Dalton Camp, “If he tries to lead the charge, it will be just an unbridled disaster.”

One might think that would settle it.

Yet for every observer who is convinced Mulroney will bow to public opinion and leave, there is another who is certain he will stay and fight.

“I don’t think for a minute that he’s going to quit,” says John Sawatsky, author of a well-received biography. “Every morning he has to get up and face a challenge.”

When Mulroney announced he would soon pay a farewell visit to President Bush at Camp David, some took it as a sign that he, like Bush, would soon leave. But then Mulroney accepted an invitation to visit Russian President Boris N. Yeltsin within the next six months, which looked like a sign he would stay.

When Mulroney threw a pre-holiday bash for extended family and old friends, instead of the glitterati who usually turn out at his parties, analysts delved again for significance.

“Could it be that Mr. Mulroney was showing (the guests) around the official residence as a friendly farewell gesture?” wondered Globe and Mail political columnist Jeffrey Simpson.

And then there was this week’s Cabinet shuffle. Political writers rushed to turn out articles insisting that all had been revealed. But some claimed that the shuffle heralded Mulroney’s departure, while others wrote that it showed his commitment to the long haul.

The most-discussed element of the reconfiguration was Justice Minister Campbell’s reassignment to defense. Campbell is a productive, highly visible, leftish Conservative who has often been named as a short-odds favorite to succeed Mulroney.

The Globe’s Simpson concluded that Mulroney was sending her to Defense to punish her for stealing his limelight. Yet the rival Toronto Star said in a front-page story that she was now Mulroney’s “apparent favorite as a successor.”

Sawatsky, the biographer, thinks the analysts should stop trying to judge Mulroney by his actions and consider his psychological profile instead.

“People don’t understand his motivations,” he says. “Brian Mulroney doesn’t have any control over his need to be prime minister, any more than Bill Clinton has over his need to be President.”

But columnist Camp reads the man’s psyche differently.

“It’s a matter of logic,” he says. “The arguments are so overwhelmingly for his going that it’s hard to imagine him thinking of staying.”

Prime Minister’s Rocky Reign

Brian Mulroney’s low public approval ratings have sparked debate over whether he will continue to lead:

“His presence permanently aggravates the national mood.”--William Thorsell, Newspaper editor

“I don’t think for a minute that he’s going to quit.”--John Sawatsky, Mulroney biographer

THE APPROVAL RATINGS

Date % approving % disapproving Nov. ’90 17 79 Feb. ’91 17 78 April ’91 15 79 Aug. ’91 12 83 Nov. ’91 12 82 March ’92 12 83 June ’92 16 80 Sept. ’92 18 76 Dec. ’92 12 83

Source: Environics Research Group Ltd.