POLITICS : Power Shifting in China : National People’s Congress is likely to juggle jobs to prepare for next generation. Deng will remain supreme leader.

One month after the 1976 death of Chairman Mao Tse-tung, the rather colorless Premier Hua Guofeng seemed to have it all.

The former security chief had led the sudden Oct. 6, 1976, arrests of Mao’s widow, Jiang Qing, and others in a group of radical leftists later dubbed the Gang of Four. The next day, the ruling Politburo confirmed Hua as chairman of both the Communist Party and the Central Military Commission. He was the first person in the history of the People’s Republic of China to simultaneously head the government, party and military.

Barely more than two years later, by the end of 1978, Hua had been reduced to little more than a figurehead. Senior leader Deng Xiaoping, the man who still rules China today, was in control.

Deng, 88, has been maneuvering for years now to pass on his power to Communist Party General Secretary Jiang Zemin, a bland technocrat and former mayor of Shanghai.

Over the years, Jiang Zemin, 66, has shown strong support for Deng’s basic policies of political dictatorship paired with economic reform. Since shortly after the 1989 crackdown on China’s pro-democracy movement, Jiang has been labeled the “core” of the successor generation of leaders.

While not expected to become premier, Jiang now is due to come close to repeating Hua’s feat. China’s rubber-stamp legislature, the 2,978-member National People’s Congress, opens an annual half-month session Monday at which it is expected to approve Jiang as China’s president. That would make him head of state, outranking Premier Li Peng in protocol terms.

Jiang already heads the Central Military Commission, as well as the party, two posts that are designed to carry greater authority than the premiership or presidency.

The question hanging over the congress will be whether the personnel and policy arrangements it endorses can long survive Deng’s death.

Is Jiang’s power base so weak that he is destined, like Hua, to be a transitional figure? Or is the Communist Party putting the finishing touches on a government leadership lineup capable of hanging together when Deng and other octogenarian power-holders finally leave the scene? (One of the elder politicians, Vice President Wang Zhen, died Friday at age 85. Story, A5.)

These issues defy definitive answers. An experienced Western diplomat, asked for an assessment of the post-Deng era, laughed and said: “Either stability or instability. I haven’t made up my mind yet, but I’ve narrowed it down to those two possibilities.” Many observers who once predicted chaos upon Deng’s death are now similarly hedging their bets.

The congress, which endorses decisions already made by the Communist Party leadership, will announce wide-ranging, top-level personnel shifts and pass legislation and constitutional amendments giving a firmer legal basis to Deng’s market-oriented policies.

The personnel decisions have not yet been officially announced, but most moves have been leaked so extensively that there is little doubt what will happen. It is widely expected that Jiang will replace President Yang Shangkun, 85. Li, 64, is expected to keep his post, despite earlier rumors that he might be replaced by Vice Premier Zhu Rongji.

Politburo Standing Committee member Qiao Shi, whose strength lies in his influence over China’s security apparatus, is due to pick up the added title of congress chairman. At least two of five current vice premiers are expected to step down, with Foreign Minister Qian Qichen and Minister of Foreign Economic Relations and Trade Li Lanqing pegged as replacements.

Constitutional revisions due for passage by the congress aim to further undercut central planning, fully legitimize private enterprise and reinforce the autonomy of factory managers within the state-owned sector.

Various legislation drafted for the congress would push forward Deng’s market-oriented policies. A company law would clarify rules for formation of business enterprises, boardroom hierarchy, accounting, profit distribution, capital transfer, mergers and liquidations.

The congress also will raise growth targets set in previously approved economic plans. The Communist Party Central Committee, in a plenary session held last weekend to finalize arrangements for the congress, determined that “the favorable domestic and international opportunities should be grasped to speed up the pace of reform, opening and the modernization drive,” the official New China News Agency reported.

An advisory body, the 2,095-member Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, opens its annual session Sunday. Its chairmanship is expected to go to Li Ruihuan, viewed as one of the most liberal-thinking members of the Politburo Standing Committee.

China’s Leadership

A few key posts expected to be announced at next week’s National People’s Congress:

Deng Xiaoping, 88, will remain senior leader.

President Yank Shangkun, 85, will be replaced by Jiang Zemin, 66, who will remain head of the Central Military Commission and general secretary of the Communist Party.

National People’s Congress Chairman Wan Li, 77, is to be replaced by Qiao Shi, 68.

Premier Li Peng, 64, will remain in power.