High Stakes in the Games of Outlaws : Recalcitrant North Korea and Libya challenge the U.N.

The United Nations is about to be faced with two severe tests of its ability to force recalcitrant states to comply with international rules of law. In neither case, unhappily, is it certain that the firmness needed to confront these challenges will be forthcoming.

The stage for the first test is being set today in Vienna, where the governors of the 154-member International Atomic Energy Agency are expected to inform the Security Council that North Korea has not met the deadline for allowing international inspection of its suspected nuclear weapons production sites. North Korea, as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), is required to permit such inspections on demand. Rather than do so, it has announced it will withdraw from the NPT on June 12. It would be the first country to renounce the treaty, setting a worrisome precedent. But for the next 10 weeks the Pyongyang regime remains bound by NPT rules. To enforce those rules, Secretary of State Warren Christopher indicates Washington will press for international sanctions, perhaps including an embargo on fuel and other supplies.

THE CHINA FACTOR: While there’s a lot of support for trying to force North Korea’s compliance, the chances don’t appear great that the Security Council will achieve the unanimity needed among its five permanent members to impose sanctions. The barrier is China, which traditionally opposes actions it sees as interference in a state’s internal affairs but which also worries about the consequences of a desperate and maybe even destabilized North Korea on its border. Surprisingly, too, South Korea for now prefers using inducements over compulsion to wrest compliance from Pyongyang. Seoul’s worry is that any upheaval in the north could suddenly confront the south--as West Germany was confronted after East Germany fell apart--with an economic responsibility of staggering dimensions.

These aren’t groundless worries. But neither are concerns about what could follow if North Korea can get away with defying the NPT’s requirements. With that precedent set, there would be little to keep Iraq or Iran--both known to be trying to acquire a nuclear arsenal--from pulling out of the NPT. And if North Korea goes nuclear, it seems a near certainty that South Korea and Japan would quickly feel the need similarly to arm themselves. That, too, has to be something for China to think about.

LIBYA’S OIL CARD: Libya provides a second looming test for the Security Council. It refuses to hand over for trial two of its officials the United States and Britain say are responsible for the 1988 bombing of a Pan Am airliner in which 270 people were killed. Libya is already under sanctions for that, including an arms embargo and a ban on flights to and from the country. Now, says Christopher, “the time has come to stiffen the embargo.”

Libya’s oil exports constitute its greatest economic vulnerability. The Bush Administration tried, with no luck, to have that major source of foreign exchange earnings embargoed. The problem in this case lies with some of America’s closest allies. Europe is the market for about 90% of Libya’s oil exports, and with those oil revenues Libya is able to buy a great many of Europe’s products. This is a comfortable arrangement on both sides. At a minimum, then, some very tough negotiations over an embargo on Libyan oil lie ahead.

But here, too, the stakes are high. The arduously gathered evidence in the Pan Am bombing points directly at complicity by the Libyan regime. Justice demands that those accused of this flagrant crime be compelled to answer for it. If Libya is able to defy U.N. authority without retribution then all international efforts to combat terrorism would be undercut. That is precisely what is threatened if Washington is unable to enlist the support of its European allies behind a strengthened sanctions effort.