Nearly 4 in 10 Say They Consider Leaving Orange County

At one time, people flocked to Orange County to fulfill their dreams. Now, nearly four in 10 expect to live elsewhere within five years, according to a Times poll.

Furthermore, six out of 10 people questioned say they do not expect their children or grandchildren to stay here.

Jobs and careers topped the reasons people gave for saying that they expected to live elsewhere five years from now. Growth and congestion were next, followed by the cost of living and concern about crime and gangs.

Younger adults, renters and the less affluent were the most likely to have expectations of moving.

Of the nearly six in 10 people who expect to remain in Orange County, about a third said that was because “this is home.” Another 18% said that jobs and career will keep them here, while 15% credit ties to family and friends.

“What’s new about what we’re seeing now,” said Cheryl Katz, co-director of The Times Orange County Poll, “is that people are concerned not just about the quality of life in Orange County, but about the economy.”

Anxiety about the economy was clearly on the minds of residents when they reflected on whether future generations of their family would live in Orange County. Of those who expected their children and grandchildren to live elsewhere, the reason most frequently mentioned was jobs and career.

The telephone survey of 600 randomly selected Orange County adults was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates from April 1 to April 4 and has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Nervous about job prospects, John Duttera, 35, is one respondent who said he thinks he will move within five years. His employer, Unisys Corp., a large computer manufacturer, has hired a new plant manager who promises to cut operating expenses from $24 million to $14 million this year. Duttera believes that means layoffs are ahead.

“I would consider moving out of the county if I couldn’t find another job. But I would like to stay here right now,” said Duttera, of Rancho Santa Margarita.

In 1991 and 1992, Orange County’s employers cut about 75,000 positions, according to estimates from the state Employment Development Department. More jobs will be lost this year, many local economists believe.

Orange County’s unemployment rate was 6.5% in February, up from 5.6% a year earlier. While the current unemployment rate in Orange County is below the 7% national figure and the 9.4% statewide rate, joblessness in Orange County has been more prolonged during this recession than at any time since World War II. In Los Angeles County, the unemployment rate for February was 11.2%.

Given the condition of the economy, the poll results are “not at all surprising,” said Robert Valleta, a UC Irvine economist. “The economic boom in Orange County in the 1980s was so remarkable and in a sense unprecedented that people have not been able to make the adjustment to the 1990s.”

He added, however, that Orange County will still “provide an excellent place to live, but not as lucrative.”

“This poll reflects to me that there are changes taking place, that we are not going to be the same county we have been,” said Harriett M. Wieder, chairwoman of the County Board of Supervisors. “But that is not for the worse, either. For every negative, there is a positive.”

The Times poll also found that, of those who said they might move, 15% are worried about congestion, while 13% believe the county is too expensive.

Ralph Barry, a 52-year-old executive from Tustin, said that he is considering fleeing the ever-worsening Orange County crush. More than ever, he said, people are confronted with graffiti, crowded freeways and a bad business environment.

Concern about crime and gangs ranked fourth among reasons people expect to leave Orange County within the next five years; 11% said that was their primary concern.

Orange County native Marie Young, 25, said that she might leave when her 3-month-old twins reach school age. “It depends on what it’s like here,” Young said, “whether there is gang activity . . . I may have to move my children to somewhere where it’s peaceful.”

Another concern for Young and her husband is declining home values.

More than half of those who own homes, 56%, said their property’s value has dropped during the past three years, with 21% saying that it dropped a lot.

Reasons to Live Elsewhere

About one-third of Orange County residents say they will be living somewhere else five years from now.

37% of county residents see themselves living elsewhere in five years, especially younger people, renters and those with lower incomes. Those thinking they will move: Age 18 to 34: 44% 35 to 54: 35% 55 or older: 28% Housing situation Own: 29% Rent: 51% Income Less than $50,000: 43% $50,000 or more: 32% Jobs and career are the main reason that residents say they would move out of Orange County: Jobs, career: 26% Growth, congestion: 15% Cost of living: 13% Crime, gangs: 11% Family, friends: 8% Lifestyle: 4% Climate, beaches: 1% Other: 22% Source: Times Orange County Poll