Panic Tells Shareholders He’ll Triple Sales : World trade: SPI founder’s plan aims at emerging world markets. Analysts see substantial risks.

Milan Panic, the colorful founder and head of SPI Pharmaceuticals Inc., told shareholders on Wednesday that he is embarking on an ambitious five-year plan to triple the company’s annual sales by concentrating on key world markets.

Acknowledging that SPI Pharmaceuticals, the chief subsidiary of ICN Pharmaceuticals Inc. in Costa Mesa, is much smaller than drug giants Merck, Glaxo and Johnson & Johnson, Panic said opportunities in Eastern Europe, China and South America could drive an unsurpassed growth spurt.

“It’s a lot easier to grow when you are small,” Panic said during SPI’s annual meeting at ICN’s headquarters.

By making further inroads in emerging nations, Panic said, he hopes to build SPI Pharmaceuticals from a company with $476 million in annual revenue to a $2-billion international corporation by 1997. The drug company, also based in Costa Mesa, already has 12 manufacturing and distribution facilities in the United States, Yugoslavia, Mexico, Budapest, Barcelona, the Netherlands, Canada and Russia.

Profit for 1992 was $34.5 million, or $1.90 a share, on revenue of $476 million, the company announced Wednesday. That compared to 1991 profit of $30.1 million, or $1.69 a share, on revenue of $364.3 million.

Some analysts questioned the expansion strategy, noting that SPI Pharmaceuticals is not the only drug company with an eye on emerging nations. Virtually every large drug company already has some presence in Eastern Europe or the Pacific Rim.

The difference, analysts said, is that large drug companies are being conservative in moving into nations that continue to be unstable financially and politically.

“Those are places that are not healthy to do business in right now,” said David Saks, a drug industry analyst with the brokerage Gruntal & Co. in New York.

Saks and other analysts say it is impossible to estimate accurately the market potential in nations battling high inflation or lack of hard currency.

Neil Sweig, a drug industry analyst with the brokerage Capital Institutional Services in New York, was even less optimistic.

“It’s all a whim, a hope and a prayer,” he said of Panic’s plan.

Panic acknowledged that the coming year could be tough for the company, especially in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, where SPI has a joint venture, ICN Galenika. Production at Galenika has been affected by bans on imports and exports during the Bosnian civil war, and the money earned by SPI has been devalued by soaring inflation.

Consequently, the company reported sagging sales and profit for the first quarter this year.

Bad times may be ahead if the Bosnian civil war spreads further, Panic said.

“We are going to have a difficult time,” he said. “I am not afraid to tell you.”