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1st-Quarter Economic Growth Stunted : Statistics: Anemic 0.9% annual rate--less than one-fifth of fourth quarter--blamed on consumer caution, weak foreign trade.

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From Times Wire Services

Consumer caution and deteriorating foreign trade held economic growth to an anemic 0.9% annual rate during the first three months of this year, the government said Friday.

Growth, as measured by the gross domestic product, the sum of goods and services produced within U.S. borders, was less than one-fifth the robust 4.7% rate of the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said. And it was just half of last month’s preliminary estimate of 1.8%.

The first quarter was the weakest since the final three months of 1991, early in the recovery period after the official June, 1991, end of the recession. The fourth quarter of 1992 had been the best in five years.

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In a separate report, the department said a big drop in exports caused the nation’s merchandise trade deficit to shoot up 12% to $29.07 billion in first quarter, the widest gap in more than four years.

Much of the lapse in GDP growth came from a sharp reduction in the growth rate of consumer spending. It was 1.2% in the first quarter versus 5.1% in the fourth.

Consumer spending grew by $10 billion in the first three months this year, unchanged from the initial estimate, but sharply lower than the $41.5 billion spending rise during the final quarter last year.

At the same time, economic slowdowns for two key U.S. trading partners, Germany and Japan, are further dragging down the U.S. economy. American exports fell at a 2.6% annual rate, while imports from abroad increased at a 12% rate.

“Fundamentally, trade is not a sector that will be boosting the economy. As long as the United States is growing faster than the rest of the world, particularly Europe and Japan, net exports will be a drag on the economy,” said economist Laurence H. Meyer, a St. Louis-based consultant.

Another sector crimping growth in the first quarter was government spending, down at a 7.3% annual rate. Military spending plunged 25.9%, the biggest drop since the government began tracking that category in 1972.

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Housing was weak too. Residential construction edged down at a 0.2% annual rate, compared to a 25.1% surge in the fourth quarter. However, economists expect a rebound in the second quarter. Unusually severe winter weather, including a blizzard that struck the East Coast in mid-March, held down construction in the first.

On the bright side, business investment in new equipment and machinery surged at a 16.5% annual rate, even better than the 8.6% originally estimated. That followed a robust 14.5% increase in the fourth quarter.

Analysts say the investment rate, if maintained, should improve the productivity of American businesses and eventually lead to a healthier economy. But for now, businesses are getting the money for investment from profits produced by conservative hiring practices and cost-cutting.

After-tax corporate profits rose 5.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $253.8 billion, after an 8.5% rise in the fourth quarter, the department said. Dividends were up 2.8% after a 3.2% increase.

The various changes added $11.7 billion to the GDP, bringing it to a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of $5 trillion.

GNP Gross domestic product measures all the goods and services produced by workers and capital located in the United States, regardless of ownership. Percent change from previous quarter First quarter, 1993: 0.9% (revised) Quarterly at annual rate Source: Commerce Department

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