Winners and Losers

The size of a company--more than its industry or location--says the most about how firms will be affected by health reform.

In the computing industry, for example, big companies such as Microsoft and IBM already provide liberal health benefits and should feel slight impact from reform.

But tiny start-ups that tend to put most of their cash into developing products--and little into health benefits--will be forced to divert funds to cover such costs.

Southern California can expect a heavy impact because it is home to so many small firms and so large a number of working uninsured.

WINNERS

Heavy Industry

Autos, steel and other heavy manufacturing industries tend to consist of large firms with good health plans. Many could see cost savings under health reform.

Public Employees

Government workers traditionally have had good benefits packages. The public sector most likely would not incur higher cost for health coverage.

Petroleum

Big oil already pays for health care. Wildcatters, equipment suppliers and other small operators might have to start paying.

Utilities

Big firms dominate and benefits tend to be good. Impact should be slight.

LOSERS

Retailing

Retailers rely heavily upon part-time workers now receiving no health benefits. Under the Clinton reforms, employers would have to pay for benefits for all employees who work at least 10 hours a week.

Agriculture

Many seasonal, low-wage farm workers receive no health benefits. They would be entitled to coverage under the proposed reforms, although some believe the industry would be among the most difficult to police.

Garments

The industry employs as many as 100,000 in Los Angeles alone, 95% of whom work for small contractors that provide no health coverage, according to the International Ladies Garment Workers Union. The Clinton reforms would require contracting shops to pick up the tab for health benefits.

Real Estate Sales

The results here will depend on whether workers are considered employees of brokerage companies or independent contractors. The former are entitled to company-paid coverage; the latter must buy their own.