POLITICS : A Reformed Revolutionary? : Peru’s president has scored points by apparently bringing jailed rebel leader Guzman to heel.

President Alberto Fujimori is using conciliatory letters by the imprisoned leader of the Maoist Shining Path insurgency to bolster political support.

The letters to the president--signed by Abimael Guzman, the founder and leader of Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) who is serving a life sentence at a military prison near here--propose talks to end the 13-year-old war that has killed more than 27,000 Peruvians.

On Oct. 1, Fujimori revealed the contents of a first letter from Guzman in a speech to the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

Although most opposition politicians say Fujimori timed the letters to build backing for the government in the run-up to an Oct. 31 constitutional referendum, some analysts say there is no need because he and his supporters already have the referendum clinched.

Based on nationwide polls carried out Monday, the Lima-based survey group Apoyo projects that 60% would vote in favor of the new constitution and 31% would vote against it. Fujimori’s popularity in Lima jumped seven percentage points--to 70%--in the week after the disclosure of Guzman’s first letter.

The new draft constitution allows an incumbent president to seek reelection. Previously, presidents could only run again after sitting out a term. Although Fujimori has not confirmed that he will run again in 1995, most observers say he is certain to announce his candidacy and that an overwhelming referendum victory is certain to push his decision.

“It’s a presidential campaign and not a campaign for the referendum,” said sociologist Raul Gonzalez, referring to the timing and political impact of the release of Guzman’s letters.

Shortly after his arrest in September, 1992, police presented a caged, pudgy and bearded Guzman wearing a Keystone-cops-style striped prison uniform. Guzman then called on his followers to continue the “armed struggle” he launched in 1980.

In contrast, last week’s mustachioed, leaner Guzman, 58, shown on Peruvian television reading the text of the second letter, appeared composed and dressed in jeans and khaki shirt. “Events demonstrate that your administration has achieved objective advances, especially after April 5, 1992,” Guzman intoned in his remarks, addressed to the president.

In April, 1992, Fujimori seized near-dictatorial powers after closing down Congress and suspending the constitution. A new Congress, elected in December, has penned the draft constitution.

Guzman has criticized the counterinsurgency strategies of previous administrations, but he applauded Fujimori’s policies: “You have developed a systematic and coherent strategy . . . achieving real successes, principally the capture of cadres and leaders.”

Guzman’s abrupt about-face has left many analysts perplexed. But most agree that Guzman’s 13 months of confinement broke the will of a man whose near-mythic standing, philosophy and actions once terrorized a nation. “Abimael Guzman was prepared to die, but not to vegetate,” Gonzalez said.

At the same time, Guzman’s letters have confused his imprisoned followers. At Lima’s Lurigancho Prison, jailers reported that after Sendero inmates were shown tapes of Guzman reading the letter, prisoners remained quiet in their cells and did not sing pro-Sendero songs, as they usually do every day.

“It’s the downfall of Guzman’s mythical image and a tough psychological blow,” Gonzalez said. “It must be very difficult for condemned persons to see the man who once led them throw in the towel.”