I’ll Be Frugal for Christmas : Polls Find Customers Will Spend More--for the Bargains

Holiday sales will rise moderately this season as consumers look to buy more but spend less on each item, national polls indicate. But while some polls show that retailers in Southern California are more optimistic than they were at this time last year, surveys of California consumers suggest that Southland merchants will have to engage in heavy price cutting.

A recent Los Angeles Times Poll found that 53% of California residents said they would spend less this holiday season. Of the 1,718 state residents interviewed in October, only 9% expect to spend more, while 36% plan to spend the same and 2% don’t plan to give any gifts. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

An ABC News/Money magazine poll found brighter prospects across the country. A nationwide survey of consumers conducted in mid-October found that 38% plan to spend less on Christmas gifts, 14% to spend more and 47% to spend the same.

And while 62% of the retailers nationwide expect their own sales to increase, only 48% of the merchants in the Southland expect such a boost, according to a poll released Monday by Deloitte & Touche, the giant accounting firm.

Meanwhile, new polls by Deloitte & Touche and by Mastercard show a rising consumer interest in bargains in the Southland and nationwide. For example, discount stores were chosen by 57% of the Deloitte & Touche poll’s respondents as the “store of choice” for holiday shopping. This is a change from last year, when 44% of those polled identified department stores as the “most favored” segment of the industry for holiday shopping.

Also, when Mastercard asked which factors would be important in their holiday shopping plans, 52% cited “special discounts” and “in-store promotions”--3% more than the number who gave that answer last year and a rise of 10% compared to 1991.

“Nationally, the trends and the climate benefit retailers who are value-oriented,” said Ira Kalish, a retail economist at the Los Angeles offices of Management Horizons, a division of Price Waterhouse. “But this bargain hunting is particularly strong in Southern California because the economy is so weak.”

David Beamon, a Los Angeles forklift driver who participated in the Los Angeles Times Poll, said he is looking for more deals this year.

“Right now, I plan to spend 35% less this season,” he said. “I’m worried about my personal (job) situation as well as the economy.”

“I’m looking for items on sale--essentials that I planned to buy anyway,” said Mary Washburn, a Palo Alto resident who participated in the Times Poll. “My brother-in-law recently lost his job. I think the economy is still weak.”

Kalish predicts only a 1% increase for Southern California over last year, which means sales would be essentially flat.

Many retailers with major stakes in the California market are planning heavy sales promotions. One exception is May Department Stores, operator of Robinsons-May stores, which have had strong earnings this year. It has announced no sales initiatives for November or December. May Chairman David C. Farrell said May is “well-positioned going into the fourth quarter.”

However, October sales reports contained trends suggesting that Southland retailers will face challenges this holiday season. Los Angeles-based Carter Hawley Hale, operator of the Broadway chain, had a 2.6% decrease in sales at stores open the past 12 months. Also, Mervyn’s, which has 45% of its chain in California, experienced a 10% drop in sales at stores open for at least a year.

Mervyn’s parent company, Minneapolis-based Dayton Hudson Corp., is planning more promotions to boost sales at Mervyn’s and Target stores, said Kenneth Macke, the company’s chairman.

Also, Carter Hawley, which expects to report disappointing earnings this year, plans to increase the level of sales discounting in the final two months.

Some analysts expect many other retailers to cater more to value-minded consumers. Industry analyst Walter Loeb of Loeb Associates in New York said sales will rise about 5% nationally on the strength of heavy promotions.

“Consumers will show up late this holiday season and will be looking for bargains,” he said. * DAUNTING DUO: Beavis and Butt-head make holiday shopping appearance amid some wariness. D6.