Time Ripe for Ulster Breakthrough? : Conflict: Immediate peace in Northern Ireland is unlikely. But news of secret British-IRA dialogue has raised hopes.

As enormous change has swept Europe in recent years--ending old rivalries and triggering new ones--the bitter sectarian war in Northern Ireland has sputtered on, seemingly immune to solution.

But last weekend’s startling revelation that British Prime Minister John Major’s government has been conducting a secret dialogue with the Irish Republican Army has raised hope that this conflict too may be nearing an end.

Certainly no serious observer is predicting immediate peace in the urban guerrilla war that has pitted Roman Catholic against Protestant and claimed 3,341 lives over the past quarter of a century.

However, news of the IRA-British government contacts, which began last February and explored ways in which the IRA might be able to end its campaign of violence and join a political dialogue, has generated a sense that a breakthrough may finally be possible.

Information about the secret talks was initially leaked to a London newspaper that published it last Sunday, forcing the government to provide a detailed account of the exchanges the following day in Parliament.

“There can be no reasonable doubt that a completely new situation exists,” said the Roman Catholic cardinal primate of Northern Ireland, Cahal Daly, speaking Wednesday evening to a gathering of experts on the issue at an informal meeting in the House of Commons. “There is a groundswell of desire for peace throughout Ireland. And for the first time in 20 years, this desire is accompanied by the feeling peace is actually achievable.

“And for the first time in 25 years, peace is also desired by the Republican movement,” Daly added, referring to the IRA’s political base, which has been at the heart of armed resistance to British rule.

Others were more cautious.

“There’s more light now, but it’s still a long way to the end of the tunnel,” said Peter Bottomley, a British Conservative member of Parliament and a former undersecretary of state for Northern Ireland.

The new mood of hope exists despite claims from both the British government and the IRA in the wake of the disclosures that the other’s version of the contacts is a lie. It also exists despite the tentative, preliminary nature of the contacts at the time they were exposed by hard-line Protestants in an apparent attempt to torpedo them.

For many of those who follow events in the troubled province--also known as Ulster--two developments are especially important:

* Events seem to be moving away from the hard-liners and increasingly in the direction of moderates.

* The very duration of the IRA’s contacts with the British government and the environment surrounding them imply that the organization is seriously seeking ways to end its campaign of violence.

*

The unexpectedly broad bipartisan political support for the government in the wake of the accounts of the secret channel provided to Parliament by Britain’s secretary of state for Northern Ireland, Sir Patrick Mayhew, is also expected to allow Major to explore further contact.

With the exception of a few extreme voices, even the reaction of Ulster Protestant members of Parliament seemed low-key.

Observers here and in Ulster believe the IRA leadership’s willingness to talk has not been due to recent bold examples--Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin shaking hands with Palestine Liberation Organization leader Yasser Arafat, or South African President Frederik W. de Klerk and African National Congress leader Nelson Mandela reaching out to each other.

Rather, they believe, simpler, more immediate concerns may be leading the IRA to at least contemplate ending its armed resistance.

“They’ve already admitted they can’t win, and with the leaders now in their 40s, they’re looking at the prospect of their kids going to jail, and they don’t want that,” summed up Luke Hasson, a department store owner in Londonderry who is politically active.

A gradual redressing of the civil rights grievances that initially sparked a Roman Catholic protest and mobilized the IRA in the late 1960s, and British government transfers of nearly $5 billion annually to develop the province, have also eroded support for violent opposition to Britain’s presence.

The formula that seemed to be evolving in the back-channel contacts began with a unilateral IRA cease-fire. That would be followed, after a limited period, by a British government invitation to the IRA’s political arm, Sinn Fein, to join the political dialogue already under way among more moderate elements on both sides of the religious divide.

The IRA is known as a highly disciplined organization. But observers fear that even if such a formula works, some IRA activists might reject a political dialogue and continue armed attacks.

The possibility that Protestant extremists would accelerate attacks in the wake of such developments is also seen as a potential risk.

The prevailing feeling, however, is one of guarded optimism, anchored in a series of realities that appear to have survived last weekend’s disclosures.

For the first time since the mid-1980s, for example, both Irish and British prime ministers appear to be personally committed to resolving the conflict.

Wednesday’s decision by Major and his Irish counterpart, Albert Reynolds, to push aside their doubts and go ahead with a planned Anglo-Irish summit today in Dublin reflects this.

Major could have backed out on the grounds that a proposed summit communique, drafted by the Irish, outlining the framework of a possible accord on Northern Ireland was premature and overly optimistic. Reynolds could have canceled out of pique at not having been informed of the British-IRA contacts.

Neither did so, in part because the mood in both countries favors agreement, but in part because both leaders personally seem to want an accord.

Political observers believe the key now lies in Major’s ability to persuade the province’s Protestant leadership to go along with a formula that would effectively allow Ulster to remain under British control until a majority of voters there decide in favor of joining a united Ireland.

Some analysts are hoping that international pressure will build to a level that will force even hard-line Protestants to give way.

Some of that pressure has already come from President Clinton, who recently telephoned Major, encouraging him to seek an agreement.

“He expressed his support and said he’d be watching and cheering from the sidelines,” noted a British official.