Assad Now Seems to See Peace as Syria’s Best Bet : Summit: If his words are followed by concrete acts, the whole Mideast picture could change dramatically. : NEWS ANALYSIS

In a formal sense, President Clinton and Syrian President Hafez Assad did little more Sunday than trade some ancient diplomatic buzzwords--”normal relations,” a “comprehensive peace.”

But after almost half a century of haggling over how Israel and its Arab neighbors might end their state of war, the words were freighted with life-and-death meaning.

If Assad’s words are followed by concrete acts--beginning with Syria’s approach to detailed peace negotiations that resume in Washington soon--the face of the Middle East could change completely. Syria has long been Israel’s most bitter enemy, the foe whose fearsome tanks and ballistic missiles have forced the Jewish state to live under the constant threat of war.

So for the United States and Israel, the key phrase from Assad was “normal, peaceful relations,” the term the Syrian president used to describe the ultimate goal of negotiations. In the Middle East, that means that Syria seeks not merely a truce with Israel but a real peace--complete with open borders and free trade--that would make renewed war less likely.

For Assad, the key phrase from Clinton was “an enduring and comprehensive peace”--meaning that the United States will use its considerable influence over the wider Mideast peace process to be sure any settlement includes an honorable deal for Syria rather than pursue bilateral deals with the Palestine Liberation Organization and other parties that leave Damascus isolated and weak as Israel’s last adversary.

“Syria is the key to achieving an enduring and comprehensive peace,” President Clinton said. “There (will) be no comprehensive peace in the Middle East unless (Assad is) willing to take a leadership role.”

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Those were the phrases the two presidents came to Geneva to speak. They were the objects of months of negotiations by U.S. and Syrian officials, and finally agreed to by Secretary of State Warren Christopher and Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Shareh in a quiet meeting the night before Clinton and Assad came together in the glare of a summit.

But the phrases that may mean the most over the long run were less noted. Syria seeks peace, Assad said, “as a strategic choice. . . . In honor we fought; in honor we negotiate, and in honor we shall make peace.”

By that, a senior U.S. official said, Assad meant that he has decided freely that peace is now, at last, in Syria’s national interest. And his proud stipulation that he would settle with Israel “in honor” was a promise to his people--and the military caste on which his power rests--that Syria will still insist that peace be made on its own terms.

A Syrian source agreed. “That is the most important thing--that President Assad has made a fundamental decision to go ahead and make peace,” he said.

Why, after 45 years of ferocious hostility to Israel, has Assad made that decision? U.S. officials provide several answers: because Assad recognizes that he desperately needs Western help to modernize his economy; because his longtime protector, the Soviet Union, is no more; because his few remaining sources of military hardware, such as North Korea, cannot hope to match the U.S. technology that is in Israel’s hands.

Sunday’s news conference, the first ever held jointly by a U.S. and Syrian president, revealed another reason: Hafez Assad is getting old. A young air force officer when he seized power in 1970, he is now a gray and ailing 63. Bill Clinton was the fourth U.S. President he had met, but the first one younger than him. As they ascended the steps to the platform in a hotel ballroom for their news conference, Assad swayed a little. Clinton, a vigorous 47, held out a hand to steady him.

Whether Assad’s decision for peace will prove lasting, U.S. officials acknowledged, will only become clear in the detailed negotiations that are scheduled to resume in Washington later this month.

“We don’t want to hype this,” said a State Department official who was involved in the negotiations. “This was a first step. Now we need to build on it.”

Indeed, Assad carefully hedged his embrace of normal relations with Israel and tied it to a settlement on the terms he wants--essentially, full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, which were Syria’s before the 1967 Middle East War.

“If the leaders of Israel have sufficient courage to respond to this kind of peace, a new era of security and stability . . . (with) normal, peaceful relations among all shall dawn,” he said.

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Assad used the word “normal” only once, and he avoided spelling out what it means in concrete terms.

But U.S. officials said they have detected a growing interest in peace on Assad’s part ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Syria’s main military supplier and diplomatic booster. And Assad’s interest has slowly grown as the other “tracks” of the Mideast peace negotiations have shown progress.

The peace agreement between Israel and the PLO last September was a major shock to Assad, U.S. officials and Arab analysts have said. The wily Syrian leader had sought to slow down the PLO’s peacemaking; the pact not only showed that he had failed but opened the prospect of a peace settlement that would leave Assad out in the cold--faced with a sputtering economy, uncertain military supplies and a more secure Israel.

U.S. officials noticed all that. So when Clinton presided over the signing of the Israeli-Palestinian agreement on the White House lawn, he deliberately inserted a quotation from Assad--”a peace of the brave”--into his speech. And he wrote a letter to Assad, one official said, noting that Syria could only benefit if it joined the move toward peace--and could only lose if it missed the train.

Officials said the U.S. ambassador in Damascus, Christopher Ross, pitched Assad and Shareh hard in his flawless Arabic, warning them that Clinton intended to give his full support to the PLO pact; at the same time, he assured them that the United States would act as an honest broker, with due regard for Syria’s interests, if they chose to make peace.

For Assad, though, one more ingredient was needed: a measure of personal confidence in Bill Clinton. Arab leaders are used to a world of one-on-one deals among warlords. And Syrian officials were worried about a Democratic President who had won office with widespread support from the U.S. Jewish community.

So one of Assad’s goals in Geneva was to take Clinton’s measure and decide whether he could rely on a young American who was still a student when Assad became president.

U.S. officials said Clinton listened respectfully during more than five hours of meetings as Assad did “some lecturing” on the history of the Middle East and Syria’s complaints against Israel. There was tension in the room too when Clinton pressed Assad to expel terrorist groups from Damascus and got a stony reply. There were a few light moments, as well; Assad “can be quite witty,” one official said.

As to whether the Syrian gained any personal confidence in Clinton, a senior official said, “There’s no way we can read Hafez Assad on something like that.”

The answer may become clear in coming months--but only slowly. After nearly a quarter-century in power, Assad is a man who plays his cards one at a time, even when they are only phrases.