Is the Summit Now Imperiled? : Reform prime minister has ground knocked out from under him by Japanese Parliament

The question Washington has to be asking now is whether it makes any sense to go ahead with the planned summit on Feb. 11 between President Clinton and the progressive but embattled Japanese prime minister.

To American eyes and ears, Morihiro Hosokawa has been little short of a godsend. Since taking office five months ago, the reform-minded prime minister has seemed to be exactly what the doctor ordered for soothing tense U.S.-Japanese relations. He has begun to open up markets, even the seemingly sacred rice trade, and has signaled across the Pacific that he favors more open trade and deregulated markets--even a tax cut for Japanese consumers.

But Friday, this new-age politician suffered a stunning, potentially devastating defeat in the upper house of Japan’s Parliament when his reform proposals were quashed. It was a huge setback--the first time since 1951 that any government-submitted bill had been voted down.

Ominously, two previous governments were toppled on the issue of political reform. Worse yet, Hosokawa had staked the very rationale of his government on achieving reform before proceeding on other issues. Does Friday’s vote mean the brilliant Mr. Hosokawa’s political end is near?

One certainly hopes not. Perhaps Hosokawa can stay on his feet, pointing out that his governing coalition at least made a good try at the biggest reform in Japan’s electoral system since the U.S.-written constitution was put into effect in 1947. In fact, after his defeat, Hosokawa could have resigned or called for new parliamentary elections. Instead, for better or for worse, he has opted to try for a compromise with his opponents. But that won’t be easy--and the deadline for a deal is Saturday, when the legislative session is scheduled to end.

If somehow they still could be enacted, Hosokawa’s reforms would help Japan emerge from its gridlocked, tradition-bound system. They would also be valuable to the United States. The political disarray in Japan is a potentially severe and possibly fatal setback to ongoing U.S.-Japan trade talks. Only a stable Tokyo can focus on Japan’s many current problems, including the brewing showdown with a Clinton Administration determined to bring down a $50-billion trade deficit with Japan.

Hosokawa has indicated no plans to call a new election--a move that would escalate the stakes in Japan. But that might be precisely the card to play if Parliament is ever to wake up. Moreoever, a new election would give Japanese voters a chance to boot out old-style politicians who have repeatedly blocked political reform.

No matter what path Hosokawa takes, the trade imbalance has become intolerable and must be reduced. The Japanese Parliament has simply made the road rougher.