South Asia Termed Most Likely Area for Nuclear War

South Asia, where India and Pakistan have fought three wars, is the most likely area of the world for a nuclear conflict in the next five years, a senior Administration official said Thursday.

Both countries soon will be able to deploy nuclear weapons, and they are developing ballistic missiles that could carry the weapons to targets, the official told the Arms Control Assn. at the private research group’s annual meeting.

In addition, the countries are in a dispute over Kashmir, an Indian territory in which Pakistan supports a secessionist movement.

“If a nuclear weapon is detonated in anger in the next five years, the most likely place that could happen is South Asia,” he said.

Much attention is now focused on North Korea, where the Clinton Administration is trying through negotiations to get nuclear facilities opened to international inspection.

The United States is threatening to ask the United Nations to impose sanctions to hurt the North Korean economy if negotiations do not produce a solution. And that, the official said, “could mean a nuclear conflict on the Korean peninsula.”

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, also expressed concern about Iran, which he said is developing nuclear and chemical weapons and aims to expand its authority in the Persian Gulf region.