State Report Optimistic on Electric Cars : Pollution: Detroit has asked that 1998 introduction be delayed. But air quality officials say technology is nearly ready.
Disputing the auto industry’s claims that electric cars remain too impractical and expensive to mass-produce, the state Air Resources Board on Wednesday released an analysis portraying the technology as nearly ready for widespread consumer use.
The agency’s review concludes that batteries available for electric cars already meet the needs of most commuters, and that operation and maintenance of the cars is comparable in cost to that of gasoline-powered vehicles.
The rosy outlook for exhaust-free automobiles lays the groundwork for a highly anticipated decision by the air board this spring. In May, the ARB must review whether the technology has advanced enough to meet a state mandate requiring the auto industry to begin selling large numbers of the cars in less than four years. If the regulation goes into effect, car makers that fail to meet the mandates would lose their certification to sell vehicles in California.
Under the standard, 2% of vehicles sold each year in California by major manufacturers--an estimated 20,000 to 25,000 cars--must be emission-free beginning in 1998. The volume increases to 5% in 2001 and 10% in 2003.
The zero-emission mandate, set by the ARB in 1990, has come under fire from Detroit’s Big Three auto companies, which are pressuring the Wilson Administration for a delay of two years or more, depending on their success in perfecting high-energy batteries.
Although the auto manufacturers are striving to develop electric car prototypes for California--including General Motors’ Impact and Ford’s Ecostar--they say the battery technology lags too far behind to guarantee consumers cost-efficient and practical cars by 1998.
The ARB’s draft report gives the auto industry little technical ground for delaying the standard.
The companies, however, still dispute the findings as overly optimistic, given the high costs and complexities of beginning production of large numbers of cars entirely new from the tires up.
“I have a lot of high hopes too. But it’s a difference between saying something is ready and saying it is just a goal,” said John Wallace, director of Ford’s electric vehicle development program, who also represents a consortium of the Big Three manufacturers and the U.S. Energy Department working to produce advanced batteries.
“The projections you are seeing in this report are absolutely consistent with our goals, too,” he said. “But I have literally scores of engineers involved . . . and all the data piled up doesn’t lead me to believe that these projections and goals are in any way achieved. A lot of work needs to be done.”
According to the ARB’s report, four currently available battery technologies generate enough power to run a car for 80 to 100 miles between recharges, which would accommodate the commutes of nearly 85% of Californians. By 1998, a battery with twice that range is likely and it will have a lifetime of five to eight years, the report says.
The review also concluded that operating and maintaining an electric car eventually could be cheaper than using a traditional car, even when the cost of replacing the expensive, 1,000-pound battery pack is included. “The total operating cost of an electric vehicle can be less than the total operating cost of a conventional Ford Escort,” the report concludes.
The cost of the electricity will be “a little over a penny a mile,” compared fuel costs of 4 1/2 cents per mile for a traditional car, the report says.
According to the report, the biggest drawback is that the purchase price of electric cars initially will be higher than that of gasoline-powered vehicles. One consultants group estimates the sticker price at $21,000.
The air agency’s report, however, portrays that as a temporary start-up problem.
“This principle holds true for the introduction of any new technology that is initially produced in small volumes. . . . Over the long-term, however, electric vehicles are expected to cost about the same as conventional vehicles,” it says.
Working together, Detroit’s Big Three and battery manufacturers recently have created several advanced, high-energy battery packs that seem promising, including sodium-nickel-chloride batteries and improved versions of conventional lead-acid ones.
But the industry stressed that these are handmade prototypes that cost around $100,000 to build, and that manufacturers are far from being able to mass-produce them at a reasonable cost.
The ARB report acknowledges that today’s costs are high, but says some pilot production plants are already in the works that will make the new technologies commercially available at a much lower cost.
“That’s easy for them to say, but as the engineer responsible for making the cost go down, there are a lot of things we have to do,” Wallace said. “With almost all these technologies we have active programs, and they are intended to help solve these problems. . . . But they are taking the goals of these technologies and assuming they are a done deal.”
Auto industry officials said they plan to present new data to the ARB disputing many of the findings, especially concerning the cost and durability of the batteries. A workshop is scheduled for March 25 in El Monte.
“There’s bound to be differences of opinion, but this is the staff’s view after compiling a vast amount of information from different sources, not just from Detroit, but from Japan and Europe and private entrepreneurs,” said ARB spokesman Bill Sessa.
The air board must again review the zero-emission mandates in 1996, but this year’s decision is expected to be the crucial turning point for the auto industry.
Under the state standards, GM, Ford, Chrysler, Honda, Nissan, Mazda and Toyota will be forced to market electric cars first. Most of the European and small Japanese manufacturers have until 2003.
California’s unique requirement for emission-free cars is the hallmark of the state’s program to clean its air, which is the nation’s worst. Motor vehicles are responsible for at least half--and perhaps 75%--of the gases that form the Los Angeles Basin’s notorious smog.
At this point, the ARB staff has made no recommendations as to whether its electric car deadlines should remain intact since they must first analyze comments received over the next two months.
However, ARB Chairwoman Jacqueline Schafer, appointed to the board by Gov. Pete Wilson in November, repeatedly has said the Administration supports the clean-car rules.
“California is on the right course toward achieving its air quality goal,” she said, “and the way we have been able to make progress has been through an aggressive program of clean cars and clean fuels.”
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