A Tsunami of Joblessness on the Horizon : Global stability: Industrial nations must attend to the developing world’s explosive rates of unemplopyment and population growth.

Concern about unemployment drew the finance ministers of Europe, Japan and the United States to the recent summit in Detroit, but who spoke for the rest of the world?

Unemployment rates in the industrialized countries are at the highest levels since the Great Depression--6.5% in the United States and 12% in Western Europe. But unemployment rates in much of the developing world already average 40% to 50%. And that does not take into account the greater number of men and women who are “underemployed,” working long hours for pennies. Without major new efforts by both developed and developing countries, the problem will not be resolved.

Burdened by debt and a rapidly expanding population, economic growth in the developing countries still remains below 1970s’ levels. These countries are also adversely effected by the slow growth in industrial countries, which still account for three-fourths of the total world output.

Work-force growth remains a key element of future employment patterns around the world. Workers in industrialized countries are aging and retiring from the ranks of the employed without an equal surge of “new blood” coming in from below. The developing world has the opposite problem. In the decades ahead, about 95% of the world’s population growth will be in the developing countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America. These countries will account for virtually all of the new entrants into the world labor force over the next 25 years. To meet this surge, these countries will need to increase employment by more than 2% a year for the foreseeable future just to prevent unemployment rates from rising beyond today’s critical level.

The United States should be concerned about employment in the developing world for its own interests. Economic growth in the developing world means jobs in this country. As developing-country income rises, so does the demand for U.S. goods. Proper policies by the United States and the dynamic economies of Asia and Latin America could stimulate U.S. export growth by more than 10% a year, creating as many as 1.7 million new U.S. jobs by the end of the decade.

As President Clinton has recognized, jobs bring more than just income to individuals. High unemployment wreaks havoc on society, particularly on families. It ranks as one of the fundamental causes of political unrest, particularly in newly emerging democracies, where people expect to reap the economic benefits of free elections. Jobs also help the environment because they allow people to earn a living without over-cultivating fragile lands or cutting down forests just to stay alive. Over the longer run, development of decent jobs will help to cut down on immigration. whether from the developing world, Eastern Europe or the former Soviet Union.

Policy-makers may be tempted to ignore this “other” employment crisis. The feeling persists that we have enough to worry about and should focus on domestic problems. But ignoring developing-world problems will not make them go away. Immigration, conflict and political unrest, as well as threats to democracy, will only increase, as will the costs of preventing spillovers into the industrial world.

There are several opportunities on deck for the Clinton Administration and other leaders to create strategies for global economic integration and growth that will benefit rich and poor countries. The World Population Conference meets in Cairo this September and will highlight the need for new approaches to slowing population (and therefore work-force) growth. Next March, world leaders will assemble in Copenhagen for a summit on social development. Finally, employment throughout the world could be increased by the next round of trade liberalization negotiations.

In an increasingly global economy, interdependence is the key to success; the Clinton Administration recognized this when it remained firm on NAFTA and GATT. It is obvious that economic growth in this country and others will depend on similar, outward-looking strategies.