Evening the Balkans Odds : Lifting the embargo might well save lives by deterring Serbia

The Balkans war is being waged by the Balkan peoples themselves. But as in centuries past, the conflict there is deeply affected by factors far outside the Balkans. The European Union (formerly the European Community), the United States and Russia surely have, among them, the power to impose peace in this region. But their interests are just divergent enough to foil the necessary unanimity. Among these differences, none is greater than that regarding the blanket arms embargo on the former Yugoslavia.

The United States believes that ending this embargo for Bosnia-Herzegovina would permit that embattled state to defend itself against Serb aggression. The European Union takes the view that Bosnian self-defense cannot defeat the Serbs but could spread the violence and prolong the conflict. The Europeans have been willing to countenance a Serbian conquest if peace can be had at no lower price. The Americans have been willing to countenance a dragging on of the conflict if the principle that borders may not be revised by force can be defended at no lower price.

But the argument against spreading the violence has been weakened lately by a shaky but continuing peace established between the Muslims and the Croats. The opinion is being voiced with new cogency--in Europe as well as the United States--that lifting the arms embargo on Croatia and Bosnia might deter rather than spread violence. Serbia is exhausted. Its venture in mini-imperialism has left it bogged down in a Vietnam-like quagmire. If Serbia can expect the peoples it has sought to conquer to be armed from abroad, it may discover a new willingness to negotiate, a new skepticism about whether any of its gains will be lasting.

Whether changing the embargo will have this effect cannot be known with certainty. But what can be known with near-certainty is that in its present form the embargo has been a major incentive to violence by the better-armed Serbian side. Evening the odds may save more lives than it costs.