The Bear Is Just Outside the Door : Russia: The days of being the West’s lackey are over, as those who stand for a strong, proud nation come to the fore.

Back in the bad old days, the American media had only negative things to say about the Soviet Union. Not that there was really much information offered, but whatever it was, it was all negative. In TV reports even the skies over Moscow were always gray.

Now, of course, things have changed. Americans get a far greater quantity and variety of information concerning Russia. But, considering how many U.S. news bureaus are stationed there, it is still amazing to see what is missed.

For example, no note has been made--at least in any of the mainstream media--of what I think is a truly significant event.

On March 4, the influential Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Independent Newspaper) published the results of a monthly poll, conducted by the highly regarded Moscow-based Vox Populi Public Opinion Research Institute. The poll, “Russia’s 100 Leading Politicians,” is considered by both the Establishment and the public as an accurate reflection of a politician’s rating. The latest results were a shocker.

For the first time in more than a year, Yeltsin slipped from first place to second. Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin took over the top spot. Acting quickly to heal whatever wound this news might have dealt to Yeltsin’s ego, Chernomyrdin chastised the media for “sensationalizing meaningless political ratings”--something he would hardly have done, had he indeed considered those ratings meaningless.

But there was more.

Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, a key player in putting the Bosnian Serbs in synch with the NATO-energized peace process, saw his standings in the poll catapulted from a tie for 99th place, in January, to a tie for 18th.

Third place went to Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, a name unfamiliar to most Americans, Russia-watchers included (but then, it took most of them a long time to pay attention to Vladimir Zhirinovsky).

Meanwhile, America’s darling reformist Yegor Gaidar slipped from 3rd place to 9th.

Chernomyrdin, Churkin and Luzhkov have all demonstrated that, first, they firmly believe in Russia’s inherent greatness and will stand up for its interests both in the “near abroad” (the former republics) and elsewhere; second, that they have faith in Russia’s ability to solve its problems, and, most important, this troika has never hidden its distaste for Western recipes--economic or political.

In a country not accustomed to polling, not involved in the game-playing that becomes inevitable when polling becomes at least as much of a political instrument as a method of gauging attitudes, the results of a monthly poll, which have been consistent for more than a year and suddenly undergoes dramatic change, should be taken seriously.

Between the end of the Gorbachev years and the summer of 1993, Russia offered the West a unique window of opportunity. The country was at a crossroads. Disenchanted and disillusioned with their past, the people were prepared to accept a radically different future. A George Marshall would have been quick to capitalize on this. He would have mapped out a strategic plan to channel funds and investments to pressure points in Russia. This time, America would not have to go it alone, as after World War II in Europe, but could work with its European and Japanese allies. The results would have been spectacular.

Alas, there was no George Marshall. In fact, there never existed any coherent policy, let alone grand strategy, toward post-Soviet Russia. Instead there persists the pernicious and arrogant view that America won, and Russia lost, the Cold War and therefore Russia should be treated as a defeated foe. A foe that must please America if it expects to be rewarded.

In Russia, a country that was not defeated and whose people never considered themselves vanquished, this policy has fed anti-American sentiment, set people against reformists seen as being pro-Western and slammed shut that window of opportunity.

It has brought to the forefront politicians who stand for a strong, proud Russia that marches to its own drummer.

They are neither Zhirinovsky-like ultra-nationalists, nor Communist Party ideologues. They are conservative pragmatists who will pursue Russia’s interests, and they are here to stay.

Not long ago, I attended a news conference in Washington. Addressing the audience on the issue of Russian-U.S. relations, one of the most knowledgeable journalists in that area, Martin Walker of the Manchester Guardian, said: “The time when Russia agreed to play pet poodle to George Bush and Bill Clinton is gone for good.” He did not say the bear was back, but I think the poll no one here has paid attention to says just that.