Briefing Paper : Foreign ‘Visitors’ to Keep Eyes Fixed on Mexico’s Election : International scrutiny is seen as part of an effort to confer legitimacy on a process that traditionally has been heavily tainted.

The Background:

The Aug. 21 Mexican presidential election promises to be historic for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the presence of officially acknowledged foreign “visitors,” in effect, election observers.

This will mark the first time Mexico has invited international scrutiny of its elections and is generally seen as part of an effort to confer legitimacy on a process that traditionally has been tainted by vote-rigging and back-room deals.

“There will be more international focus on Mexican elections than ever,” U.S. Ambassador James R. Jones told a small group of foreign reporters recently. “What private investors in the United States and elsewhere will be looking for is the transparency of the election. It will affect investment decisions.”

Earlier this month, Mexican officials asked U.N. advisers to review the vote-counting computer system and to counsel Mexican poll watchers. The review is important because a computer crash in the 1988 vote count led many Mexicans to suspect that the presidential election was stolen by the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).

In addition, the government is taking bids--open to foreign companies--for an audit of the voter registration lists. Recently passed electoral reforms permit the government agency in charge of elections to invite foreign visitors to attend the polling.

The reforms also outlined an extensive role for Mexican citizen-observers. Acting informally, citizen observers and poll watchers from political parties have played an increasingly important role over the six years since the last presidential race in detecting irregularities and fraud in state and local elections.

The Parties:

The Federal Electoral Institute, a government agency that runs elections in Mexico, is charged with inviting foreign visitors and deciding the basis and criteria for their attendance. Foreigners may be authorized to witness any phase of the election process, which would presumably include vote-counting.

Controversy within the government over foreign poll watchers was resolved by a compromise that made the United Nations the outside organizing agent, avoiding the Organization of American States, which is perceived to be heavily influenced by Washington.

Besides evaluating the computer system, the United Nations plans to work with Mexican civic groups that are organizing citizen-observers. The program will be overseen by the National Civic Alliance, an umbrella agency for about 400 organizations nationwide that has coordinated poll watchers in recent state elections.

Mexico’s nine political parties will also have their own poll watchers. The opposition National Action Party--a pioneer in election observing--expects to cover about 95% of the country’s precincts, while the governing PRI is shooting for 100%. The third major political force, the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), currently has observers committed to all Mexico City precincts and two-thirds of those nationwide. By election day, party officials say they expect to have 100% coverage.

The Issues:

Protests accusing the ruling party of vote fraud in state elections reached levels in recent years that forced the government to negotiate with opposition leaders to restore order, often by naming interim governors.

To avoid such unrest in August--a development that would be certain to upset foreign investors and jeopardize the country’s economic program--the government is promising “squeaky clean” elections. However, opposition parties, notably the PRD, are already questioning the reliability of the upcoming vote.

“The electoral process is being conducted based on the partiality of the electoral authority, an unreliable voter registration role, illegal and inequitable financing and access to the media and the lack of an effective judicial resource to make voting effective,” PRD presidential candidate Cuauhtemoc Cardenas wrote in a letter to U.N. Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali. The letter was sent the day after the government requested U.N. help.

Such comments anger PRI officials, who say the country has made major strides in electoral reform. “It would be understandable from people who had not been involved in the process, but they know better,” charged Jose Angel Gurria, director of international affairs for the campaign of PRI candidate Ernesto Zedillo.

The Process:

Mexican poll watchers will apply for nationwide accreditation at their local or district election offices. They must attend courses approved by the Federal Electoral Institute. The United Nations is expected to offer such courses.

On election day, the poll watchers will have the right to observe the installation of voting apparatus at the precinct, the voting, vote counting, posting of results outside the precinct, closure of the precinct and the report of precinct officers to district officials. They will have the right to report on what they observe to the Federal Electoral Institute.

The rules for foreign visitors are less clear because the Mexican Congress has left the details to the electoral institute.

The Mexican Constitution does not permit foreigners a formal role in Mexican elections. However, international groups have routinely attended state and mid-term congressional elections in recent years, commenting freely on any irregularities they saw.

Even if the only foreign visitors formally invited are the U.N. advisers, they will see the voting and will undoubtedly comment on it, Mexican political analysts say.

The 1988 Race Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari won the 1988 election with by far the weakest showing in the six-decade history of the Institutional Revolutionary Party. Opposition groups claimed fraud in 1988 returns. Here are the results of that election:

* Carlos Salinas de Gortari, Institutional Revolutionary Party: 50.36%

Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, National Action Front: 31.12%

Manuel J. Clouthier, National Action Party: 17.07%